https://hemerotecadigital.uanl.mx/files/original/283/13714/ENSAYOS._1982._Vol._4._No._1._Enero._0002015730ocr.pdf de45c92af22c6be47584f8688e017ca5 PDF Text Text ��FACULTAD DE E C O N O MI A FONoo UNIVERSITARIO Fundada en 1957 * La revista ENSAYOS, publica manuscritos de todos los campos de la economía, la estadística, las ciencias sociales y la educación. Se edita tres veces al año en los meses de Enero, Mayo y Septiembre; salvo cambios de última hora que determinen lo contrario. Enero 1982 * la suscripción a la revista tiene un costo anual de $350.00 (Trescientos cincuenta pesos, 00/100 MN) para todo el territorio nacional; y de 15.00 Dólares para el extranjero. Las solicitudes deben dirigirse a la propia Facultad, mediante cheque u orden de pago. Dirección: Facultad de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, loma Redonda #1515 Pte., Col. Loma Larga, Monterrey, N.L. México. Apdo. Postal 288. * Toda comunicación relativa a manuscritos y correspondencia editorial, deberán ser dirigidos a: Lic. Andrés Garza García. Editor. Departamento de Relaciones, Facultad de Economía, U.A.N. L., Loma Redonda fl'.il5 Pte., Col. Loma Larga. Monterrey, N.L. México. Apdo. Postal 288. DIRECTORIO Consejeros: Consuelo Meyer L. Manuel Silos Martínez Eladio Sáenz Quiroga Romeo Madrigal H. Edgar López Garza * las opiniones, juicios o ideas que puedan contener los ;irtículos impresos en esta revista no reflejan de ninguna forma el criterio de la Facultad de Economía de la UANL, siendo de exclusiva responsabilidad de su autor. Sin embargo, esta Institución se reserva todos los derechos y la revista no puede ser reproducida sin permiso por escrito de 1 Editor. Se autoriza la reproducción parcial para efectos de análisis o comentarios en otras publicaciones. * Publicación real izada por el Departamento de Relaciones de la Facultad de Economía, de la Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León. Director: Arturo García Espinosa Editor: Andrés Garza García �INDICE Pág. AN ANALYSIS OF MEXICAN AGRICUL TURAL PRICE POLICIES. Andl1..w 8WU,,t & Edu.a!c.do Segalllla DEMOGRAPHIC ANO ECONOMIC CORRELATES OF DEVELOPMENT AS MEASURED BY ENERGY CONSUMPTION. J ohn V. V. Sau.ndeJU, and Geo11.ge R. Re.i.nluvr..t LOS INFORMES PRESIDENCIALES EN MEXICO. 55 67 FJt.ancUc.o Va.tdú T1t.ev.üio PLANIFICACION DE LOS RECURSOS HUMANOS. Luc..útda V.laz de la Ga1t.za 75 �AN ANALYSIS OF MEXICAN AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICJES * AncÍJr.w ~ t & Ecúuvu:io SeglVIIUl ' E.Ue tita.bajo 6ue plt.Uentado en Octub'1.e de 1981 po'1. EduaAdo Segevvia, pMan.te env-i.ado po'1. nuutlta. Fac.uUad de Economí.a., Y AncÍJr.ew &vt6t, alumno de Ec(lno,¡.fo Ag«cola de la Un,¿veJUi.i.dad de Mi.Mowu-Col.umb,i,a I tU..ti;t,uci6n c.011 qU.(.en tene.mo¿¡ c.e1.c>b'1..ado Convenio de Co.f.abo.'tau611 Acad~m.fra. �l. lntroduction 1 Throughout the l 970 s and into this decade, Mexico has experienced rapid growth in domestic consumption of agricultura! products. Part of the increase can be attributed to a rapid rate of growth in population, estimated to be greater than 3 percent per year in the l 970's. Another reason for this expanding demand is increasing incomes. As Mexico has continued . to develop its manufacturing capabilities, as well as its recently reappraised petroleum potential, incomes of a large segment of the population have increased directly or indirectly. Agricultural production, especially of grains and oilseeds, has shown aggregate increases in the 1970's. However, output has continually lagged behind more rapid increases in consumption. The end result has been · a continuing domestic agricultura! production shortfall and a growing dependence on imported agricultura! products. During a period of 30 years, from the mid l 9301s to the mid l 9601s, the agricultura! sector established the basis for the deveJopment of the entire Mexican economy. The agricultura! sector, although declining in relative importance, continues to be of central concern to M~xican policy makers. Attempts to stimulate agricultura! production and therefore reduce imports, have become increasingJy important in the formulation of government agricultural policy. During the period 1963-72, the guaranteed prices (producer support prices) of ali important grains and oilseeds were frozen. In 1972, the Mexican government began te. increase these guaranteed price Jevels. These increases continue up to the present time. Also, rising consumer prices are considered as politically undesirable as is Mexico's continued reliance on externaJ food sources. Consequently, the Mexican government has also attempted to keep consumer food prices low. These policies · have resulted in significant interventions into agricultura! product markets. �3 2 These are sorne of the basic issues that are addressed in this pdper. expropriated and the land reorganized into cooperative or comrnunal ejidos. Discussion begins with a brief background of the agricultura! sector as well as a Although redistribution of Jand began in 1917, maxi mum governrnent intervention descriptíon of the development of the government's marketing policy and carne under Lazaro Cardenas' administration (1934-40). During the period 1930-40, institutions. The functions and objectives of CONASUPO, the government's price the ejidatarios share of total land area increased from 6.3 percent to 22.5 percent and marketing agency, are discussed. Also discussed are sorne of the consequences while their share of cropland increased from 13.4 to 47.4 percentO2) (Table 2.1). Finally, an In 1940, with a change in administration, much less government emphasis analysis and evaluation of Mexican price policy and the effects on the agricultura! was placed on the redistribution of land. During the period 1940-60, although the sector is made. ejidatarios share of total Jand area increased slightly from 22.5 percent to of government intervention into the agricultura! product markets. Due to the broad objectives and complex nature of Mexican agricultural 26.3 percent, their share of cropland actually decreased from 47.4 percent to 43.4 policy, more specifically price policy, a comprehensive study is beyond the scope of percent. Throughout this period, public investment policies stressed Jarge scale this paper. This paper focuses attention on sorne major food and feed crops, irrigation projects, new land development, agricultura! research and credit, and notably: corn, edible beans, sorghum, soybeans, rice, wheat and safflower. Abo, guaranteed prices for selected crops. Agricultura! output soared as new land was agricultura! price policy at the production level is the primary focus of the brought under production and new plant varieties were introduced. The production discussion and analysis. of corn, the principal foodgrain increased from 1,640 thousand rnetric tons (TMT) in 1940, to 5,420. TMT in 1960. Production of beans, also an important basic food crop, increased from 97 TMT in 1940, to 5~8 TMT in 1960. Background For years ~xico has suffered many of the chronic development problems encountered by LOCs. Throughout the years, the Mexican government has Wheat production, which was a major emphasis. of the Mexican Green Revolution, also increased dramatically from 464 TMT in 1940, to 2,203 TMT in 1964. * attempted to find a suitable balance between the generaUy conflicting goals of Significant positive results have resulted from the Agracian Reform. The expanding agricultura! production and ex.ports, and increasing the general economic restructuring of Jandholdings has brought about increases in employment for a large w•elfare of the low-income population. Mexico's nearly dualistic agricultural sector group of low-íncome rural peasants. During the period 1917 to 1970, approximately has developed as a result. 2.7 million ejidatarios received Jand under the Agrarian Reform. Also, sorne The Mexican Revolution, which began in 191 O, occurred as a par tial result improvements occurred in the distribution of incomes. The increasing share of of the unequal distribution of land and the poor working conditions of the low- agricultural output produced on the ejidos is a good indicator of this improvement income rural peasant (campesino). in income distributions. Under the Constltution and through the The ejidatario's share of total agricultura! production Agrarian Law of 1917, attempts were rnade to reorganize the structure of agricultura! Jandholdings. The larger agricultura! enterprises, latifudios, were * Source: Econotecnia Agrícola �4 5 increased from 11 percent in 1930 to 41 percent in 1960.07) Since the Revolution, these welfare factors have continued to be politically, as well as socially sensitive TABLE 2.1 issues in Mexico. MEXICO: AREA BY TYPE OF OWNERSHIP, 1930-70 The Agrarian Reform has, however, brought about sorne undesirable side effects. Attempts to increase employment and improve income distributions have Census Area (! 0O0's of hectares) not necessarily gone hand in hand with increases in productivity and overall agricultura! output growth. The restricted size of many of the ejidatarios Year Total Ejidos Colonos Private 131,594 128,749 145,517 169,084 139,868 8,345 28,923 38,894 44,497 60,533 6,000 6,069 7,554 8,735 9,191 117,250 93,757 99,069 115,852 70,144 landholdings has resulted in a relative inefficient subsector, with many farmers living at, or near, subsistence levels (Table 2.2). This has led to a scarcity of capital, which is fundamental for the acquisition of productivity increasing inputs. 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 During the term of President lopez Mateos, 1958-64, greater emphasis was placed on achieving self-sufficiency in foodstuffs and on becoming a net exporter of com, wheat and other agricultura! commodities.O l) Agricultura! production .was stimulated through the use of relatively high guaranteed prices, and PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 6.3 22.5 26.7 26.3 43.3 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.2 6.6 89.1 72.8 68.1 68.5 50.1 surpJuses were exported through the Mexican Export and lmport Company Source: Government of Mexico Census Data. _(Compania Exportadora e Importadora Mel(icana - CEIMSA). Also, since food prices were considered too high, the Mexican govemment expanded its network of retail stores which sold basic commodities at low prices. During the mid 1960's, TABLE 2.2 government policies seem to havt? been effective and Mexico began to export MEXICO: SIZE OF HOLDINGS BY TOTAL AND AREA PERCENTAGES, 1970 sizable quantities of corn and wheat. With the beginning of the Echeverria administration in 1970, welfare issues such as a more equitable distribution of incomes again received more public attention. After 1970, production objectives were still considered vital, but much of the government investment in the agricultural sector was concentrated in the size % of total parcels % of total area 0-1 ha. 1-5 ha. 5-10 ha. 10-20 ha. 20-100 ha. 100 ha. and o ver 22.8 42.8 22.4 8.5 2.9 0.6 1.9 17.2 22.9 17.9 19.0 21.0 social areas--health, sanitation and education. To achieve these objectives, and to Source: Government of Mexico Census Data. stimu!ate agricultura! output and the adoption of new technologies, agricultura! policies were directed toward maintenance of high agricultura! product prices, �7 subsidiza t:on of inputs, particularly credit for Jow-incorne producers, but also fertilizer, improved seed and machinery, and the development of roads and rural infrastructure. Price supports for agricultura! commodities that had rernained ,,:;. e ... o e~ --b. constant since their implementation in 1963, began to increase dramatica!Jy in 1972 (Table 4.1). c., :, E Continuing atternpts were made to increase agricultura! ....o "'e commodity prices bo_th through raising price supports as well as through purchases O ...V., u .... o:: o --- -,.,: ...e N o N \D .:,- ..¡ "' ,.,: "' ,.,: 00 ó a:. "'ó °'Ñ ..... _,;. 1 r--: ..... V ...u V c.. of domestic production by the National Company of Subsistence Commodities °'..... o "'...°' (CON AS UPO). 1 Throughout the l 970 1s, the growth rate of agricultura! output declined vi o:: partially because of poor weather, but also as a direct or indirect result of past and o,__ present government agricultura! policy. u ~ u O() ., .... o:: o :::; N \D -N ~ ... <( o<¡ "' Ñ ' N Ñ "' ..... ó1 "' \D ó "' o _,;. 1 o "' 1 ...e V u ... V c.. "'c.. -¡_ Cl ~ o - o "'Ñ oz commodities in the 1970's. Total cropland which stood at 14.4 million hectares in UJ ..1 u dl UJ < ó 1z < z o ~-= Vl !: .. e .,:,.....--., ..... ,;. Q. o .:,- ...: ...: \D o .¡, °'..¡ "'..¡ "'..¡ B:g --...... ... ..... "' e "'..¡ °',; V u ... V c.. .; ~,.0CI O()., <c.. 0 ... e ¡:: :: < <( ..1 :> c.. increases in cropland area, combined with a popuJation growth rafe in excess of oc.. z 3 percent, put great strains on the Mexican economy (Table 2.3). u Mexican government economic growth strategy and political philosophy o-~ V Be., throughout most of the l 9601s was forced to import vast quantities of these to 2•.5 percent in 1966-75.08) This declining growth in output and only minimal ... o position in the production of basic food grains such as corn, wheat and sorghum, growth which had been 9.2 percent in 1946-55, and .5.3 percent in 19.56-6.5, slowed ~ o :, ...... c., "3 <( Mexico, which had enjoyed a surplus 19.65, increased only 13.9%, to 16.4 million hectares in 1978. Agricultura! output ,,:;. .., V <( xUJ ~ :, N %'00 "'°' CI - c.. -E Cl ~ 0 o -o '- V (j ... .... ., o:;:; ...V., .... o111 o:: o -- -N ~ ..... °' \D .:,- Ñ ..... 00 ..... ...: 00 ...: "' "' "' ó -"; --•"'00 ... e.o ...u41 ·¡:¡ E >,"" 11' e0 ti) • ., .,.. c.. ..o QI) fór the 1980 s are embodied in the Global Development Plan (PGD) published in 1 April 1980.Cll) The PGD coordinates objectives and policies in thirteen different sectoral areas including the Mexican Food Supply System (Sistema Alimentario c. e o ·;; ., o o .:,- N o o "3 Q. o c. "'~ "' ..... o "' "' 00 "' °'o "'Ñ ,; ~ ~ ~ 00 "' ,.: \D 00 e:: "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' .,... o N .:,- - N N - N N .:,.:,- 11' Mexicano, SAM). Under this plan, an anticipated earnings of Mex $933 billion (U.S. $40 b1llion) from the exports of oil and natural gas through 1982, would be 41 distributed to the different sectoral areas. The agricultura! sector would be the recipient of 25 percent of these revenues which would be earmarked for crops, livestork and rural development. In 1980, the total cost of these progrdms, 5AM, >- o ..... "'°' °' -°' ..... .:,..... ..... ..... "' .... ..... ..... °' a, " "' "' " °' °' °' °' °' °' °' N ..... 00 1 ...e -8 "'eo "'...41 c.. o o ~ .,...e o"'"' >, 1 o .... 1 -~.,... ... ... ti) ~ V) .E "' "' "' -a; °'... °'... iii o o .. c.. u. u. --• -- -N u o:: :> o V) �8 9 were estimated at MEX $50 billion (U.S. $2.2 billion) for producer programs and MEX $35 billion (U.S. $1.5 billion) for the consumption side.O 1) support prices, these programs cover input subsidies, credit and crop insurance, In recent surveys, it was estimated that approximately 35 million people, or over one-half the Mexican population did not obtain the 2,750 calories and the producer organizations, food and commodity marketing processes, Jand tenancy and coloniza tion. 80 grams of protein recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization as the The overall success of SAM depends heavily on the success of Mexican price minimum daily requirement. Of this larger group, 19 million people--13 million in policy. Price supports and input subsidies on "basic" foods could have favorable rural and 6 million in urban areas--were considered as seriously malnourished.(l l) results on the production of these commodities, but will undoubtedly cause The diet of a Jarge segment of the Mexkan population, but especially the lower distortions in other "non-basic" foods and non-food agricultura! commodities. income consumers, is composed principally of corn and edible beans. Corn and beans, however, not only constitute an important position in the Mexican diet, but their cultivation also occupies the majority of the present cropland area. Corn and 111. A. Agricultura! Price Policy and Marketing Institutions Historical Development bean production accounted for 45.9 and 8.9 percent of total crop land area Since the earJy part of this century, the Mexican government has pursued a respectively in 1976. Moreover, a large part of this cropland area is located in policy of intervening in the pricing and marketing of agricultura! commodities. traditional,. small, lower income agricultura! zones, especially in tt.e central Article 27 .of the Consti tution of 1917 provided the government wi th th~ first legal highlands. basis for the regulation of product prices. O h ver t e ensuing years, the Mexican The goals of SAM are to reach self-sufficiency in beans and corn by 1982, government has utilized two principal approaches to the regulation of prices.02) and in ali "basic" food grains by 1985. It is planned that in the long run these The firS t was to influence the supply and distribution of particular commodities by expected food gains will come mainly from rainfed areas in the present agricultura! establishing mínimum zones and through large expansions of agricultura! land in the tropical gulf coast for those agricultura! products considered as basic necessities. d . T pro ucer pnces. he second was to regulate consumer prices In 1937, an active price support policy, as well as the regulation of supply zones.* One of the major tools for achieving proposed short run agricultura! production increases is Mexico's current producer price support policy. involves 12 different program areas in the agricultura! sector. SAM In addition to and distributi · · · df on, was 1mt1ate or wheat, through the founding of the Committee to Regulate the Wheat Market. Its major purpose was to regulate the Mexican wheat price and to ins ure th . e necessary suppl1es for national consumption. This agency was followed, shortly thereafter, by the creation of the Mexican Jmport and Export *Estimated "underexploited" Jand includes 3.6 million hectares in the Gulf and southeast zones, 200,000 hectares in the north, 500,000 in the center and 1.5 million hectares in the northern and central Pacific.(4) Company S.A. (CEIMSA). CEIMSA's responsibility was to export and import agricultura! prod t 'th h b' . uc s w1 t e o ¡ect1ve of maintaining stable agricultura! prices by obtaining sutt· . . 1c1ent supphes for the national market. In l 938, the Com mi ttee t0 R ¡ egu ate h t e Market for Subsistence �10 11 Commodities assumed the responsibilities of the Committee to Regulate the 'J'heat producers, and also to put their products within price le•:ds accessible to lowMarket and also expanded coverage to other commodities. Its goals were more income consumers. domestically oriented than CEIMSA in that they were centered on correcting the On April 1, 1965, CONASUPOSA was olficially replaced by CONASUPO. ineffiencies and irregularities in the production, distribution and pricing of the articles of basic consumption. The realization of these goals included the B. regulation of domestic buying, selling and storage. To complement the Committee Agricultura! prices in Mexico are largely administered by CONASIJPO, a to Regulate the Market for Subsistence Commodities the Consultative Committees · of the Articles of Primary Consumption and the Comm1ttees of v·1g1·1ance CONASUPO semiautonomous price and marketing agency of the federal government. * of the CONASUPO has severa! social and economic objectives including: (1) the Commerce of Articles of Primary Necessity were created at the end of 1940 and promotion of increased purchasing power among low-income consumers and small the beginning of 1941. farm producers, (2) the promotion of greater efficiency in the marketing system, In 1941, the National Distributor and Regulator S.A. (NADYRSA) was and (3) the stimuation of agricultura! output.(8) established, replacing the previously created Committee to Regulate tlle Market The functions of CONASUPO are carried out by nine different interrelated for Subsistence Commodities. Among NADYRSA's functions were regulation of the agencies.O) Among these agencies are: prices of products of primary necessity or .primary materials used in the production of these primary products. l. CONASUPO Distributors S.A., DICONSA In 1949, NAOYRSA was dissolved and its functions 2. CONASUPO Warehc::.."5e of Deposit S.A., ANDSA incorporated into CEIMSA. 3. CONASUPO Rural Warehouse S.A., _BORUCONSA In 19.50, Congress passed the Jaw titled, Powers of the President in 4. CONASUPO Centers of Peasant Training S.A., CECONCA · del EJ"ecut1·vo en Materia Economica), which Economic Matters (Atn"buc1ones 5. CONASUPO Promoter of Social lmprovement, PROMOTORA broadened ·the government's price regulation policy from not only primary necessities but also to general foodstuffs. 6. CONASUPO Industries S.A., ICONSA lt also allowed the President to set 7. CONASUPO Industrialization of Milk S.A., LICONSA prices by decree. The Bureau of Prices (Direccion General de Precios), under the 8. CONASUPO lndustrialization of Corn S.A., MICONSA Secretaria de Economía (later renamed the Secretaria de Industria y Comercio) was created in 19.51 to implement the law. The following is a brief description of the various agencies and their functions. The National Company of Subsistence Commodities S.A. (CONASUPOSA) · ,Mareh 1961 • CONASUPOSA's principal functions were to regulate was created m the national markets of subsistence agricultura! commodities. 9. CONASUPO Industrialization of Wheat S.A., TRICONSA l. CONASUPO Distributors S.A., DICONSA is formed by six different regional offices located in the principal commercialized centers of Mexico. These functions included the enactment Of Poll· c·1es to insure mínimum prices to agricultura! * Dependency of the Secretariat of Commerce. The �12 13 delegations are located in: Guadalajara, Jal., the Federal District, Hermosillo, Son., Monterrey, N.L., Puebla, Pueb., and Villahermosa, Tab. 2. Provide leadership to the pea!:ants and also inform them of the CONASUPO guaranteed price. Their principal 3. Provide facilities for the transporting of peasant production. objectives are: l. Provide producers a fair price for their production. In 1977, BORUCONSA had 1,400 wraehouses throughout Mexico with a 2. Establish a marketing system which attempts to minimize the marketing margin for agricultura! products. capacity of 1•5 million MT. The number of warehouses had increased 50 percent since BORUCONSA was created in 1971. Other services that are provided by 3. Permit consumers access to agricultura! products at Jow prices. BORUCONSA are the facilities to thresh grain and also the selling of ferti!izer to DICONSA contains a system of more than 1,700 grocery stores located in th e peasant population. In 1977, BORUCONSA sold sorne 160,557 tons of fertilizer, both the rural and urban sectors. about 1.5 percent of national consumptionJ3) 2. The National Warehouse -of Deposit S.A., ANDSA was integrated into 4 • CONASUPO Centers of Peasant Education S.C., CECONCA was integrate d into CONASUPO in 1974. The principal functions of ANOSA are: CONAS~O in 1972. l. Establishment of warehouses in the principal demographic areas, in order . to maintain adequate stocks of agricultura! products such as .:orn, edible This agency has the objective of assisting peasants in different activities such as ...........cti .,. ""u . . on processes, apphcat1on of fertilizers, water management, conservation and · management of grains ~d seeds, and breeding of Hvestock beans, rice, etc. 2. Assist in the allocation of capital_ resources to increase production and CECONCA has two types of education_al programs. The first consists of bringing peasants to CECONCA centers to demonst rate techniques on the merchandizing. ANDSA operates in more than 250 locations throughout Mexico and manages prc,rnotion of rural development. In the other type of program, CECONCA provides 800 warehc-11ses with an approximate capacity of 3.3 million metric tons. ANDSA on site extension to the peasants. In 1977, 71,671 peasants were enrolled in these is also promoting the installation of freezers throughout the Mexican coasts with programs. the objective of accelerating the development of the fishing industry. Given their complementary activities, ANDSA functions within a coordinated system with .5. CONASUPO Promoter of Social Improvement, PROMOTORA was created in 1966 with th BORUCONSA. · · al b. · · . . e prmc1p o ,ect1ve of mfluencmg the mtegration of the peasant into new potential areas of production. This involves providing technical assistance in 3. CONASUPO Rural Warehouse S.A., BORUCONSA was integrated CONASUPO in 1971. The principal functions of BORUCONSA are: l. Organize and promote the development of peasant production. into new production systems, social assistar.ce as well as the necessary infrastructure. The a f 1 1. 1. d e v t es an programs of this agency are financed by the Secretariat of Commerce, the National Bank of Rural Credit, the Secretariat of Agriculture and Water Resources and others. �15 14 8. CONASUPO Industrialization of Corn S.A., MICONSA was integrated into 6. CONASIJPO Industries S.A., ICONSA was created in 1975 with the following CONASUPO in 1972. MICONSA's objective is to regulate and modernize the objectives: production of products derived from corn, an essential part of the diet of a large l. Contribute to the economic development of the country through the segment of the Mexican population. MICONSA is closely related to DICONSA processing of agricultural products such as vegetable oil, corn flour, which provides the raw materials to produce the various corn products. wheat flour, feed grains, etc. MICONSA consists of five plants located in Tlanepantla, Mex., Arriaga, 2. . Preserve and distribute these products for domestic consumption and for Chiap., Jaltipan., Vera. Guadalajara., Jal., and Los Mochis, Sin., which comb.ined exportation. have a processing capacity of 300,000 tons of corn per year. 3. Development of more diversified products for low-income consumers. ICONSA consists of severa! producer plants and five regional sales agencies. 9. CONASUPO Industrialization of Wheat S.A., TRICONSA was integrated into The production plants are located in Tultitlan, Estado de Mexico, Mexi~ B.C., CONASUPO in 1972. TRICONSA's objective is to provide different wheat products Obregon, Son., Navojoa, Son., Nuevo Laredo, Tamps., Gomez Palacio, Dgo., and to low-income consumers af low prices. This agency operates principally in Monterrey, N.L. Mexico City since practically all its production is consumed by Mexico City's The ICONSA regional agencies are located in Mexico, D.F., Monterrey, N.L., population. Guadalajara, Jal., Obregon, Son., and Gomez Palacio, Dgo. ICONSA cooperates wito CONASUPO in the assembly of raw materials for the various production C. Marketing Channels processes. The intervention of CONASUPO and other government agencies in the marketing of agricultura! commodities is sizable. For guaranteed prices to be 7. CONASUPO Industrialization of Milk S.A., LICONSA was created in 1972. effective, the Mexican government, through CONASUPO, must intervene and LICONSA's principal objective is to regulate and modernize the milk products purchase parts of the domestic agricultura! production. This intervention requires market, as well as increase both production and consumption by low.:.income government investment in collection, storage and distribution facilities. In years families. of shortage, the amount of domestic production purchased by CONASUPO is LICONSA operates with two production plants, one in Tlanepantla, Edo. de minimal. However, in these year·s , Mexico must import agricultura! commodities Mexico, and the other in Jiquilpan, Mich. These plants produce approximately one to maintain sufficient supplies for national consumption. In good production years, million Jiters of processed milk per day. LICONSA also has about 800 distribution purchases oi crops, which are supported by CONASUPO, guaranteed prices may be points (retail stores) in Mexico City and also provides associations and hospitals extensive (Tables A.1-A.7). Also, to stimulate domestic production, numerous managed by the government. input suu:.idies have also been established to insure a sufficient and Jow ccst supply �16 of inputs to the producer. 17 Furthermore, the Mexican government, through CONASUPO and other agencies, has become involved in the processing of feed and (/) food crops. This involvement has come through direct public intervention, as well as through subsidization of private companies. ~l 1 'JI F.urthermore, the government controls various agricultura! market channels at the prevailing market prices or they can sell to CONASUPO at In 1980, approxlmately 20 percent of the domestic corn harvest was sold to CONASUPO at the guaranteed price, MEX$4450 (US$193) i 1:1 ~ J=• "'e! "O o J e! ,:, return for. the 1980 corn crop was estimated at US$222 per MT.(7) .. >, V) et: :e w ~ ., -;! ó .. o o ~o et) o::: o.. t c:-:,u e: i .-.! 1,. et~ w l.u ll. The majority of agricultura! commodity imports are made by CONASUPO. ::J o 2 Ninety percent of the 112 yellow corn imported in 1980, was destined for human consumption and was distributed by CONASUPO at the same subsidized prices as .t: 1/) "' H ~ ,.; ~ ., a, ... 1 +.., f-~ N 1 e, crl d r.. en ... ~ ;' ., .., H (f) z ~e ..~""'"lJ .J !1:-i,<l ~l~U a:: ce w C) '::s' o u Qo cr: ...u> o C) ., " en !: ... "' ....,"" e ~ ~ ...."" i: a. :,; "t:' ,,: s:: o, ., ·rl "' 3!E: e!.)ji ~ 't .:-.«: e .. ...... J! r kv: H f.+ -t- ~~ 1 In 1980, corn imports consisted of significant quantities of 02 and f/3 yellow corn. ¿ .,o ..."'s:: ~ The difference between the producer returns and the processor's cost is to transport the corn from CONASUPO facilities to the processing plants. e °'t- (11 absorbed by CONASUPO. In addition, corn processors pay no transportation costs l; >- uº a: :5 - CONASUPO then supplies subsidized corn to private and public corn MT .(7) N :,: .., l:! ::, cost to these corn processors for the 1980 corn crop was estimated at US$215 per ..; H l ·!.. + .= :¡ e a, "'... > o Hz ... t., i :oc. f ci!. .. .1 ,..; tw ~ 111 -1 E"' .•í" 111 J-; lJI e,: u~ ~ US$20 per ton from the National Bank of Rural Credit. The average gross producer processors, i"volved in the pr.ocessing of food for human consumption. The average ~ ~ ·º u o '2 o < :i: ~ i ':t: ti) e,) a: ..~ l: :s t/l e "k .'! J t. E< u per MT. Com producers that sold their corn to CONASÜPO in 1980, also received cr (t o E< the guaranteed price. o .. 8 " ensure the Mexican consumer food at a reasonable price. Corn prodt1cers can either sell their corn through prívate .l et- ... through the formation of govemment operated retail stores. These stores help to market (Figure 3.1). f : c..~ l- product prices at the wholesale and retail level. Finally, intervention has come One example of Mexican government interventlon is the domestic corn lu ¡"' l •e" t ·- j Mexican government funded companies operate in such industries as corn, wheat and milk processing, the feed industry and etc. a: ~ o" r.. s o "''O" ...., ·rl ro u �18 domestically produced corn. The remaining JO pen.ent of the //2 yellow corn imports was sold to starch manufacturers at the cost of acquisition (import price) plus handling and storage. The 113 yellow corn, which is considered as a substitute for sorghum, is sold to the mixed feed industry at acquisition cost plus handling and storage. The marketing system for wheat is similar to that for corn (Figure 3.2). In 1980, wheat producers either sold their wheat to CONASUPO at the guaranteed price, US$154 per MT, or on the open market at prevailing prices. Wheat miUers cJ) oc <:t) then obtained their wheat requirements at the prevailing market price, but were C( given a cash rebate based on their flour production and the wheat purchase price. _J IU H c.l UJ Furthermore, in 1980, millers received an additional cash bonus of approximately ....1 I: o l. q) o ti) C> [ .... 1 .... N (O 1 US$94 per ton of wheat milled.(7) In 1980, the total cost of subsidizing the consumption of 3.3 MMT of wheat was estimated at about US$300 million. The total cost of subsidizing the non-feed utilization of approximately 11.5 MMT of corn was estimated to be US$350 million.(7) Total costs to the government for intervening in the wheat and corn markets were almost equal, because consumer subsidies on wheat food items were estimated to be more than three times greater per ton of grain equivalent than for coro. Also~ imported wheat prices were higher than interna! Mexican support prices, whereas corn was less expensive on the world market. D. Establishment of Guaranteed Price Levels The objective of the Board of Directors of Agricultura! Economics, as well as other government agencies (i.e., CONASUPO), is the development of the agricultura! sector. Guaranteed prices are established for numerous agricultura! commodities with the objective of increasing production and profitability of agricultura! :ictivities. ¡z �20 21 The determination of guaranteed prices is based on the probable number of hectares that will be planted in a designated year or season. E. Sorne statistical Mexican vs. World Prices During 1970-1980, agricultura! prices, especially of food and feed crops, relations are estimated between the number of hectares planted and variables such soared on the world market. as: rural prices, * costs of production, utility of production per hectare (value of agricultura! support prices since 1972 have been far greater than increases in world production minus cost of production), previous yields and etc.05) This procedure is prices, numerous Mexican food and feed crop guaranteed prices remain below world done separately for each of the five production zones in Mexico: North Zone, c~nter Zone, North Pacific Zone, South Pacific Zone and the Gulf Zone. price levels.* However, even though increases in Mexican In the 1970's, expanding domestic demand continually outstripped domestic food and feed crop production. In order to satisfy this increasing demand, When the hectares planted are determined, the Board of Directors of CONASUPO** was forced to import, mainly from the United States, large Agricultura! Economics estimates the demand for these products at the national quantities of various food and feed crops at prices significantly higher than interna! leve!. Having these data, with probable production of the various agricultura! support prices (Table 3.1). Grain imports of 7.8 million metric tons (MMT) and products, the guaranteed prices-are established. Also, it is important to mention oilseed imports of 1.2 MMT in ·1980, resulted in an extremely large cost for that, political as well as social considerations are also involved in the CONASUPO and ihe Mexican economy (Table 3.2). establishment of guaranteed prices. These guaranteed prices are published after planting, but prior to harvest. This announcement of the support leve! prior to harvesi, but after planting, has the . advantage of allowing more accurate appraisal of the supply situation, particularly Mexican corn and soybean production, favored by a guaranteed price well above world price, was unable to keep pace with the domestic demand and as a result, Mexico imported 4.8 MMT of corn and 750,000 metric tons of soybeans in 1980. This situation is illustrated _graphically in Figure 3.3• Given that the worlrl equilibrium price in the 112 yellow corn market (Pw) is ;ith respect to weather.<9) below the Mexican guaranteed price of corn (Pg), there is a shortage in the domestic production of corn equal to QoQ1 which is imported by CONASUPO. * * Rural prices are the prices that are paid to the producer (farmer) at his farm, for his production. Notable exceptions are prices of corn and soybeans. ** Mexico prefers to purchase foreign grains and oilseeds by government-togovernment transactions. However, purchases are made on a public tender or through direct negotiations with foreign suppliers, in that order of preference. CONASUPO imports practically ali grain and oilseeds needed for domestic consumption. However, in March 1980, provisions were made between the Undersecretariat for Regulation and Supply (of the Ministery of Commerce) and ~he private mixed feed, wheat milling and oilseed processing industries for direct import purchases by these prívate sectors. In December 1980, the United States and Mexico signed a bilateral grains agreement which provides for the importation by Mexico of between 4.7 and 6.2 million metric tons of grain from the United States. �23 TABLE 3.1 Table 3.2 COMPARISON OF \T.ORLD ANO MEXICAN PRICES OF SELECTED AGRICUL TURAL CROPS, 1978-81 Mexican Imports from U.S. of Selected Agricultura! Products, 1974-80 Mcxico2/ World 1/ 1978/79 1979/80 1980/813/ Wheat and Wheat Floür 1978/794/ 1979/8o5/i9&0/816/ Rice (U.S.$ per MT) CORN WHEAT Sorghum Soybeans Sugar & Tropical Products (1,000's of Dollars) 105.3 119.3 142.4 127.3 152.3 200.5 1974 181,613 33 194,158 55,278 81,587 328 11,182 137.8 173.4 182.2 114.1 131.7 147.1 1975 13,040 317 208,788 62,489 6,705 249 10,122 176.2 89.1 102.2 125.0 1976 296 460 82,593 1,068 57,166 332 14,182 243.6 280.1 344.8 1977 41,392 362 176,311 66,823 108,323 101 11,298 1978 88,816 227 159,949 69,544 178,796 7,906 14,653 1979 197,152 2,797 114,166 154,017 118,277 6,145 17,156 .1980 123,464 20,455 677,894 318,558 259,411 17,194 160,152 GRAIN SORGHUM 111.8 SOYBEANS Corn Non-Fat Milk 281.8 146.0 283.0 3l7.3 This table was prepared to demonstrate relative differences between world and Mexican prices. World prices will vary according to location of source, transportation costs, etc. 1/world prices are June-May average prices. CORN, U.S. No. 2 Yellow, F.O.B. Vessel_Gulf Ports WHEAT, U.S. No. 2 Hard Winter, Ordinary Protein, F.O.B. Vessel Gulf Ports SORGHUM, GRAIN, U.S. No. :! C.I.F. Rotterdam SOYBEANS, U.S. No. 2 Yellow, F.O.B. Vessel Gulf Ports 2/Mexican prices are guaranteed prices (CONASUPO) for marketing year. 3/sased on June-February average price. 4/Exchange rate US$1 = MEX$ 22.78 5/Exchange rate US$1 = MEX$ 22.85 6/Exchange rate US$1 = MEX$ 23.20 SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture, Economics, Statistics and CoopPratives Service, "FATUS": Foreign Agricultura! Trade of the United States. Varin11s Issues, 1980 and 1981. Mexican guaranteed prices compiled from Compania Nacional de Subsistencias Populares (CONASUPO). Source: X"i:ed Stat~s Departme_nt of Agriculture Foreign Agricultura! Service, Mexico and its gnculture. A Developmg Market. U.S. Embassy, Mexico City, July 1981, p. 49. �25 FIGURE 3 . 3 In 1980, more than 90 percent of this corn was destined for human consumption. These corn imports are then sold to the public and prívate corn food processors at a SM subsidized price. SW lmports of other food and feed crops in 1980, included 2.1 MMT of grain sorghum and 800,000 metric tons of wheat. For these crops, the world prices ar e above the Mexican guaranteed prices. This situation is illustrated in Figure 3.4. As can be seen, the world equilibrium price in the market of wheat (Pw}, is above the Mexican guaranteed price of wheat (Pg}. Given the supply and demand of wheat in Mexico, this results in an excess demand in the domestic wheat market. Therefore, the Mexican government imports the quantity QoQ¡ of wheat to satisfy DW the domestic quantity demanded at (Pg). However, since the Mexican guaranteed price of wheat (Pg) is below the world price (Pw}, the Mexican government must Q* subsiéize the imported wheat sold in the Mexican ma;·ket. This subsidy is equal to Mexican Corn Market World corn Market the shaded area of Figure 3.4. IV. Anal sis and Evaluation of Mexican Price Polic and Its Effects on the FIGURE 3 .4 Agricultural Sector SM Mexican price policy concerning agricultura! products is extremely broad based. sw At the producer, intermediate and consumer levels, numerous price supports, price ceilings and/or input subsidies have been established. Attempts to hold retail prices at a low Jevel while rapidly increasing producer support prices has lead to substantial distortions in the agricultural product markets. To control retail prices, especially for basic food products, controlled retail and wholesale prices, as weJJ as subsidies to intermediate producers (i.e., processors}, have been ~ expanded. However, the foundation of Mexican price policies is directed toward 0M During the period J 963-72, no increases occurred in the guaranteed w 9* World Wheat Market the agricultura! producer, especially of basic food and feed crops. D: Qit Mexican Wheat Marke t �26 27 (support) prices of most food and feed crops. In 1972/73, in order to stimulate TABLE 4.1 agricultura! production to meet the growing domestic demand, and also because of Indices of Prices Received by Farmers (PRF), Prices Paid by Farmers (PPF) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), 1970-79 a rapid inflation rate, the Mexican government, through CONASUPO, began to increase the leve! of food and feed crop guaranteed prices. Between 1970 and 1979, the Prices Received by Farmers (PRF), for ali 1970 = 100 agricultura! products, increased 337 percent, whereas Consumer Prices (CP0 PRF increased 266 percent. The comparison of CPI and PRF can be used to illustrate the relative measure of the changing terms of trade of agriculture (Table 4.1). All agricul tural products Grains and pulses Industrial crops 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 100 100 100 102 101 104 105 102 108 135 127 116 163 183 136 195 217 163 .267 238 359 317 300 403 363 350 473 437 100 101 103 109 135 155 239 272 318 380 100 100 98 101 99 102 101 102 131 128 124 147 164 175 193 251 220 290 252 100 105 111 134 162 180 229 277 320 384 Another measure of the relative terms of trade of agriculture are the implicit GOP PPF deflators by sector. From 1970 to 1977, prices in the total economy (total GDP) increased a total of 192 percent (Table 4.2). However, the agricultura! sector's increase in prices was 222 percent over the same period. Both these comparisons Tractors and fann machine:ry Fertilizer Certified seeds seem to suggest that in the 1970's, the agricultura! sector was favored positively by CPI Mexican price policy and that the terms of trade began to shift in favor of agriculture. Even though the agricultural sector asan aggregate has been the recipient Source: PRF and PPF: FA0 Production Yearbook, 1979. of a favorable price policy in recent years, within the sector complete parity is not CPI: the rule. Liyestock prices, (again measured by the implicit GDP deflator), which are not supported at the producer leve!, have failed to keep pace with prices in the remainder of the agricultura! sector (Table 4.2).* livestock prices rose 150 percent. Between 1970 and 1977, In the same period, _crop product prices, of which numerous are covered by price supports, rose 272 percent. Also, a lack of parity in the guaranteed prices is the rule among the various food and feed crops Guaranteed prices of edible beans and corn, for example, increased 586 and * Egg and milk prices which are not controlled at the producer leve!, are controlled at the retail leve!. Plan Global de Desarrollo, 1980-82. 344 �"O l, 28 373 percent respectively, between 1970 and 1980. Soybeans, sorghum, safflower and wheat support prices increased 400, 364, 300 and 289 percent respectively, Tl\BLE 4.2 during the same period (Table 4.3). INDICES or THE IMPLICIT G0P OEFLI\TOR BY SECTOR, 1964-77 1970 = 100 Although recent Mexican price policy goals are to expand agricultura! production, little increases are apparent in basic food crops such as corn and edible 1965 1966 1967 84 Total GDP 11griculture* 87 87 87 90 196P 1969 92 1970 96 100 1971 1972 1973 105 110 124 154 180 220 137 165 195 239 91 92 96 100 100 109 95 100 102 111 148 188 228 283 98 100 98 105 118 126 1'0 177 crop Production 88 88 91 92 Livestock 86 tl8 92 90 beans. Guaranteed prices of corn, which were constant for the period 1963-72, increased more than 209 percent from MEX$940 in 1972, to MEX$2900 per MT in 1978. Total corn production increased only 10.8 percent during the period 1971-72 to 1977-78. Corn yields, however, seem to have reacted favorably. Corn yields which averaged 1268 kilograms per hectare per year in the period 1971-72, *Includee the foreetry and fi.aheries-subllectors. sourc::e: 1974 1975 1976 World Bank, Special study of the Me:dcan Ecormx: Kajor Policy Ieeues and Proepects. Report No. 2307-ME, May 30, 1979. increased 13.5 percent to an average 1439 kilograms in 1977 -78. During the same time period, however, total corn harvested area declined from an annual average 7,491 to 7,330 thousand hectares. The edible bean situation was similar. During the period. 1972-78, guaranteed prices for beans increased 243 per..:ent from MEX$1750, to MEX$6000 per MT. However, total bean production actually declined from an annual average 911 TMT in 1971-72, to 859 TMT in 1977 -78. This decline in production was caused by a significant decrease in bean harvested area. During the period 1971-72 to 1977-78, average annual bean harvested area declined fro'Tl 1,826 to 1,605 thousand hectares. However, during the same period annual edible bean yields increased 7.2 percent from an average 500 to an average 536 kilograms per hectare. While basic food crops have shown little output response to increasing guaranteed prices, cash/commercial crop production appears to have reacted favorably.* Output of safflower, sorghum and soybeans al!-increased throughout the l 970's. These production increases, however, carne about almost * Domestic market prices and official guaranteed prices tend to be very closely correlated (except during extreme shortages) and therefore both play an integral part in producer decision making. �31 entirely through drarnatic expansions in cropland area. The increases in harvested 30 area averaged 276, 155 and 225 percent for safflower, sorghurn and soybeans respectively, during the period 1968-71 to 197_8 -79. However, while production and TABLE 4.3 area for these three crops were up substantially, average yields of the Mexican Guaranteed Producer Price IDdices of Selected Agricultural Crops, 1963-80 .!. (pesos per MT) 1970 = 100.0 oilseeds--safflower and soybeans--declined during the sarne period, while sorghurn yields recorded only_a slight increase. Wheat was an exception to these basic trends with production and yields up slightly, while harvested area registered a slight decline. CORN EDIBLE.i BEANS WHEAT PADDY GRAIN SORGIIUM SAFFLOWER COTTO~ -SOYBEAN RICE 1963 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 95.5 1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 100.0 1971 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1972 100.0 100.0 100.0 116.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1973 127.7 131.4 100.0 152.0 106.7 168.7 100.0 1974 159.6 342.9 142.4 227.2 200.0 206.2 272.7 1975 202.l 285.7 191.7 256.0 213.3 218.7 227.3 1976 248.9 300.0 191 . 7 281.6 233.3! 218. 7 272.7~ 1977 308.5 300.0 224,5 324.8 266.7! 250.0 201.e! 306.7 343.7 m.e! 1978 308.5 342.9 284 . 8 324.8 1979 370.2 457,l 328.6 373.6 366.7 400.0 338.2 1980 473.4 685.7 38ll.8 464 . 0 400.0 500.0 404.5 A partial explanation for this disparity in output response, between cash and basic food crops, could be the Iarge increases in price supports for sorghum, safflower and soybeans during the period 1972-78. However, output of edible beans, which received even more favorable guaranteed prices, did not increase as dramatically as the cash crops and actually decreased during the 1972-78 period. Another more plausible explanaticn, is that the price supports had a more dynamic output (more specifically area) response in cash crops than in basic food crops (Table 4.4 and 4.5). This seems to suggest that the supply elasticity for these crops is elastic. Basic food crops; corn and beans, staples in the Mexican diet, and which are grown to a large degree by small, Iow-income traditional producers, on non- .!. for marketing year irrigated land, seem to have had little supply respor.se to price (i.e., inelastic I preferred supply). However, cash crops which are generally grown on more commer'cialized, ~ no guaranteed price ! lárge, irrigated farming enterprises, seem to have been responsive to price changes for irrigated ares - 213 . 3 and 260, 0 for 1976 and 1977 respectively. ~ for Sinaloa rice, 250.0 Source: (See Appendix, Tables A.1-A.8) (Table 4.6 and 4.7). This supply response coupled with a growing demand for livestock feed--a large user of sorghum, safflower and soybeans--may explain in part the increases in sorghurn, safflower and soybean output (Table 4.8 and 4.9). This may partially explain the disparity between basic and cash crop output, but why did yields decrease and area increase for cash c·c-ps while basic crop yields and are:1 reacted in the opposite direction? Part of the explanation may come �33 32 TABLE 4.6 TABLE 4.4 YIELD OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL CROPS, 1960-79 HARVESTED AREA OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL CROPS, 1960-79 YEAR(S) YEAR(S) CORN EDIBLE BEANS WHEAT GRAIN SORGHUM SOYBEANS SAFFLOWER COTTON RICE 32 89 167 237 184 403 429 494 831 139 147 64-67 68-71 148 184 159 72-75 76 77 78 79 CORN EDIBLE BEANS WHEAT GRAIN SORGHUM SOYBEANS SAFFLOWER COTTON RICE (kilograrns/hectare) (lOOO's of hectares) 1960-63 60-63 64-67 68-71 72-75 76 77 78 79. Sources: 6295 7769 7477 7077 6783 7469 7191 6236 1581 2094 1789 1715 1315 1630 1580 1229 810 796 783 719 894 708 759 % 137 460 892 1223 1251 1413 1397 1368 \ 17 45 134 294 172 314 216 386 744 521 438 234 419 349 378 180 121 n,6 (See Appendix, Tables A.l-A.8) Sources: 987 1135 1207 1206 1182 1357 1520 1295 408 448 449 566 562 472 600 666 1779 2554 2849 3274 3761 3464 3666 3618 2210 2943 2717 2749 3219 3060 2999 2680 1835 1924 1932 1737 1754 1642 1543 1816 1269 1399 1457 1439 1299 1284 1435 1341 %: 2232 2431 2548 2803 2907 3143 3307 3238 SAFFLOWER COTTON RICE 584 726 822 878 953 997 1047 (See Appendix, Tables A.1-A.8) TABLE 4.5 HARVESTED AREA INDICES, 1960-79 INDEX 1968-71 = 100 EDIBLE BEANS YEAR(S) CORN 60-63 64-67 68-71 72-75 76 88.3 84.2 103.9 117.04 100 100 94.65 95.8 73.5 90.7 99.8 91.l 88.3 96.l 83.4 68.6 77 78 79 Sources: WHEAT 103 .4 101.6 100 91.8 114.l 90.4 96.9 '¼ TABLE 4.7 GRAIN SORGHUM SOYBEANS SAFFLOWER 15.3 51.5 100 137 .1 140.2 158.4 156 .6 153.3 12.6 33.5 100 219.4 128.3 234.3 161.l 288.0 19.l 53.2 100 141.9 ÚO.l 241.3 256.8 295'.8 (See Appendix, Tables A.l-A.8) COTTON YIELD INDICES, 1960-79 1968-71 = 100 RICE . 93.9 159.5 99.3 142.8 100 100 84.06 124 . 3 44.9 107.4 80.4 121.6 81. 7 66.9 72.5 % l'EAR<s> CORN EDIBLE BEANS WHEAT GRAIN SORGHUM. 1960-63 81. 7 94.0 100.0 99.9 97.9 112.4 125.9 107.3 90.8 99.7 100.0 126.0 125.1 105.1 133.6 148.3 62.4 89.6 100.0 114.9 132.0 121.5 128.6 127.0 81.3 108.3 100.0 101.1 118.4 112.6 110.3 98.6 64-6/ 68-71 72-75 76 77 78 79 Sources: (See Appendix, Tables A.1-A.8) SOYBEANS 94.9 99.5 100.0 89.9 90.7 84.9 79.8 94.0 87.0 96.0 100.0 98.7 89.1 88.1 98.5 92.0 71.0 87.5 88.3 95.4 100.0 100.0 106.8 110.0 115.9 114.0 121.2 123.3 127.3 129.7 ¾ 127.1 �34 35 TABLE 4.8 from the fact that irrigated area devoted to basic crop production increased in the PRODUCTION OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL CROPS, 1960-79 1970°s (Table 4.10, 4.11 and 4.12).* Between the periods 1971-72 and 1977-78, corn plantings on irrigated lands increased from .5.39 percent of total corn area to YEAR (S) CORN EDIBLE BEANS WHEAT GRAIN SORGHUM SOYBEANS SAFFLOWER COTTON RICE 6.92 percent. This expanding use of irrigated land for corn production was similar to that for edible beans and rice production. During the same period, irrigated (lOOO 's of metric tons) edible bean area increased from 3•.56 percent to 4.94 percent. With respect to rice, 1960-63 1964-67 1968-71 1972-75 76 77 78 79* 6218 8816 9034 8532 8017 10137 10931 9255 646 936 893 969 740 770 949 1056 1438 2031 2228 2372 3363 2456 2785 2272 296 1088 2463 3377 4027 4325 4190 3902 35 86 258 513 303 516 334 701 42 128 253 343 240 518 616 665 485 540 430 382 224 418 366 % 312 361 379 516 463 567 401 489 irrigated area increased from 40.48 percent to .51..59 percent. Therefore, since yields are significantly higher on irrigated land than on rainfed .lands, part of the aggregate yield increases recorded by beans and corn can be attributed to these changing productio_n patterns, Conversely, cash crop area under irrigation, as a percentage of total cash crop area, registered decreases. However, total cash crop Sources: (See Appendix, Tables A.1-A.8) area was up significantly in tbe 1970's, whereas basic food crop area declined. Consequently, decreasing aggregate yields for sorne cash crops could be partially explained by large increases in the usage of less productive, non-irrigated land for cash crop production. TABLE 4 .9 PRODUCTION INDICES, 1960-79 INDEX 1968-71 = 100 Another possible explanation for the increasing yields of basic food crops and the decrease in sorne cash crop yields, could be a direct result of agricultura! YEAR(S) CORN 1960-63 1964-67 1968-71 1972-75 76 68.9 97.6 100 . 0 EDIBLE BEANS WHEAT GRAIN SORGHUM 72.3 104.8 100.0 108.5 82.9 86.2 106 . 3 118.3 64 . 5 91.2 100.0 106.5 150.9 110.2 125.0 102 . 0 12.0 44. 2 100.0 137 .1 163 .5 175.6 170.1 158 . 4 SOYBF:ANS SAFFLOWER COTTON Rl<S 112.8 125.6 100.0 88 .8 52,l 97 .2 85.1 82.3 policy. Com, and especially edible bean guaranteed price increases were for the most part greater than those for cash crops. Therefore, basic food crop producers 77 78 79 94 . 4 88.7 112.2 121.0 102 .4 13.6 33.3 100.0 198.8 117 .4 200.0 129.5 271. 7 16.6 50 . 6 100.0 135.6 94 . 9 204. 7 243.5 262 . 8 ¾ possibly were beginning to receive sufficient incentives and the necessary inputs to 95.l 100.0 136,1 122.2 increase production per area, whereas cash crop producers were finding it more 149.6 profitable to simply increase land area, which was often less productive. Also, 105,8 129,0 partly responsible for this disparity in yields could have been a greater amount of input subsidies; credit, fertilizer, seed, etc., to basic food producers. Sources: (See Appendix, Tables A.1-A.8) * Only irrigated land in Federal lrrigation Districts is accounted for in this discussion. Total irrigated land area would be higher. �36 37 TABLE 4.10 DISTRIBUTION OF CULTIVATED AND IRRIGATED LAND AND VALUE BY TYPE OF HOLDING, 1960 D TABLE 4 .11 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL AREA OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS UNDER IRRIGATION 1 , 1971-78 Large co~.mercial (more than 100,000 pesos) IH:3 Medium commercial (25,000 - 100,000 pesos) Family Farros (5,000 - 25,000 pesos) Sub-family (1,000 - 5,000 pesos) sub-subsistence (less than 1,000 pesos) Percent of value of Production Percel\t of Irrigated Land Percent of Cultivated Land Percent of Holdings 13% '' \ \ ', \ \ \ \ 34% • CORN 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 5.28 5.51 5.54 6.53 6.30 6.60 7.06 6.79 EDIBLE BEANS WHEAT GRAIN SORGHUM 3 . 54 3.58 3.39 7.35 9.67 7 .54 4.60 5.29 65.41 65.37 66.84 58.92 64.62 72.23 70 .00 68.01 33.94 33.36 36 . 15 32 . 72 32 . 49 40.84 29.33 29.48 SOYBEANS 80.25 80.91 82.16 78.80 69 . 93 58.62 65.36 59.42 SAFFLOWER 86.12 81. 32 78 .93 81.87 76.91 96.42 56.33 74 .27 COTTON 90.19 77 .02 71.82 77.98 81.65 75.94 73 .04 80.82 RICE 40.48 42.37 37.78 42.39 47.81 36.65 48.23 51.59 11 oue to the lack of information these figures include only irrigated area in the irrigation districts. 0.5% 3% YEAR 28% '' '' \ \ '' \ \ '' 14% \. \ \ '' \ \ '\ \ \ '\ \ ' Ja 38% -**** **** **** ****~ **** '' l 9"/4', '\ \ '' ' 25%, :nn, a:n: :::::i *****! '' **** *****' --- --31% .,. ,, ., ., .,. **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** ., ., TABLE 4 .12 2~ .... ..... 14% 27% \ '' -.. ..... ' \ .... ..... ,, ., ,, .., YEAR CORN EDIBLE BEANS WHEAT GRAIN SORGHUM SOYBEANS SAFFLOWER COTTON l~71 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 100 .0 104.3 104.9 123.6 119.3 125.0 133.7 128.5 100.0 101,..1 95.7 207.6 273 . 1 212 . 9 129.9 149.4 100.0 99 . 9 102.1 90.0 98.7 110.4 107.0 103.9 100.0 98 . 2 106 . 5 96 . 4 95 . 7 120.3 86.4 86.8 100.0 100.8 102 . 3 98 . l 87.l 73.0 81.4 74.0 100.0 94.4 91.6 95.0 89.3 111.9 65.4 86 . 2 100 .0 85.3 79.6 86.4 90.5 84.2 80.9 89.6 24, \ ' IRRIGATION INDICES, 1971- 78 1971 = 100 · ,, ,, ,, ,, 17' --- 4% - - - Source: Poleman Thomas T., "Food, Population, and Employment: some ' Implica tions for Mexico' s Development". Cornell Agricultural Economics Staff Papar Number 78-19, Ithaca, N.Y., 1978. 4 Sources: RICE 100.0 104 . 6 93.3 104.7 118 . 1 90.5 119.1 127 .4 Econotecnia Agricola Consumos Aparentes de Productos Agricolas 1925-78, Vo l. III, No. 9, Sept. 1979 . Informe Estadistíco No. 98, Dec. 1979 , Díreccion General de Economía Agrícola. �38 39 As a direc t or indircc t result uf \1exican agr;,-uJ tura! pr1cc policy, dramatic wholesale Jevels, increased only 98 percent between 1972-78, however, the price of changes in crop mixes have occurred. For example, the harvested area of cotton sorghum, the principal feedgrain used in egg production, increased 180 percent in decreased by more than 50 percent from 1965 to 1978, whereas t he harvested area the same period.* During the period, December 1977 through August 1978, the of land competing crops such as soybeans and sorghum, increased 789 and cost of production of one kilogram of eggs increased 6.2 percent from 15.43 to 444 percent respective!y, during the same period. * This suggests that various producers in the agricultura! sector switched their lands to those competing crops which were more profitable. 16.39 pesos. However, during this same period, the producers profit decreased 94 percent _from 1.02 to 0.06 pesos per kilogram.(13) This resulted in numerous smaJl and medium-sized egg producers leaving the market. Distortions resulting from the present price policy are especially apparent in Mexican sugar market. Mexico had historically been self-sufficient and a sugar Distortions have also occurred in the Mexican milk market. The recent stagnation in pasteurized milk production was attributed to poor returns to exporter. However, partiaUy due to poor weather and antiquated equipment, but producers due to the relatively low government controlled ceiling price of fluid also due to the established price policy, Mexico has now become an importer of pasteurized milk, and increased the sales of uncontrolled, lower quality, sugar. By maintaining a policy of adequate quantities of sugar to the consumer at unpasteurized milk ata higher price.O 1) "reasonable" prices, the government artificially controlled sugar prices at levels Mexican price policy aJso involves the subsidization of agricultura! inputs. substantially below the cost of production. In the past, this disparity was paid by Such inputs as fertilizer, certified seed and machinery were made available to revenues generated by sugar exports. Recently, however, as \iexico moved into a producers at subsidized levels during the 1970's. Since 1970, the prices of inputs net importer position, the disparity resulted in a large government consumer increased ata slower rate than have agricult1,1ral prices (Table 4.1). From 1970 to subsidy for sugar. Estimates are that the sugar subsidy which cost eight billion 1979, fertillzer prices increased about 145 percent while "ali agricultura! product" pesos in 1979, increased to 25 bil!ion pesos in 1980.01) Therefore, in 1980 the prices increased 336 perce;.t. Mexican government decided to let the sugar price rise and amidst public outcry continue to provide water to a,ericultural producers at a fraction of the true cost. However, Mexican imports of Subsidies to cover operation and maintenance costs in large scale irrigation increased the retail price more than 100 percent. sugar will most likely continue, at least in the short run. ** Distortions in the production of eggs have also been created by the present agricultura! price policy. The price of eggs, which is controlled at the retail and Also, federally subsidized irrigation projects projects were estimated at MEX$1.0 billion in 1977.0 6) This figure, however, does not account for the even more substantial capital costs. Throughout the l 970's, e ven though Mexico pursued an apparent posi tive agricultura! price policy, little outpt;t anda negative harvested area response * Cotton is produced for fiber as well as for oil and mea!. ** Trade agreements with Cuba and the U.S. have been made for domestic sugar requirements. * Based on a Mexico City average annual retail price, SARH, Econotecnia Agrícola, "Mercado de Huevo." Volume 11, Number 10, Octobc-r 1979. �40 41 occurred in basic food crops such as corn and edible beans. However, the yields of sizeable increases in agricultura! irnports. Also, even though wheat, sorghum and these crops increased during the same period. Output of cash crops seems to have soybean production increased during the period 1972-78, these incrPases still were reacted favorably to price incentives. Most of these increases in output, however, unable to keep pace with a rapidly expanding domestic demand. were the result of increasing cash crop area (with the exception of wheat). Yields imports of wheat and sorghum, as well as soybeans, also continued at record Jevels of most of the cash crops (again with the exception of wheat and also sorghum) throughout the 1970's. As a result, Over the last ten years, Mexico has had two different and constantly tended to decrease throughout the l 970°s. What are the implications of Mexico's present agricultural price policy en conflicting price policy goals. On the one hand the Mexican Government has other important agricultura! industries? A t present, Mexico enjoys a large surplus attempted to provide higher income levels, especially for Jow-income agricultura! and balance of trade surplus in strawberries and tomatoes. The coffce industry is producers, through increases in guaranteed prices. On the other hand, government also a large earner of foreign exchange. Also, the livestock industry, especially agricultura! policies have stressed providing basic foods at low prices to the poultry and pork, is showing signs of rapid expansion. However, if price supports consumer. continue to favor basic food crops without attention to these other important agricultura! product markets, as well as resulting in a great cost to the Mexican industries, further growth is not so clear. economy. From an economic point of view, the amounts and the levels of the These policies have tended to create distortions in the various numerous subsidies and price supports seem to be an extreme burden on the v. Mexican economy. However, given the government's overall social objectives, the Summary and Conclusions The Mexican Government, throughout the recent development of its agricultura! price policy, has been unable to sufficiently stimulate production of role CONASUPO has played recently in the marketing of agricultura! products appears to have been satisfactory. Yields of Given that there was little or no response in harvested area of basic food corn and e~ible beans have shown recent increases, however, these increases have crops to higher agricultura! producer price levels, the Mexican Government tended to be offset by decreases in harvested area. As a result, corn and edible initiated SAM in 1980. SAM's principal objectives are focused on increasing output bean production remained somewhat contstant, amidst recent rapid increases in of traditional food crops, of which they hope to achieve self-sufficiency by 19&2. Given the differences in objectives involved in the These increases in output are expected to come from increases in productivity of Mexican agricultura! price policy, the apparent result has been the stimulation of present farming areas as well as sizeable increases in the overall agricultura! Jand production of various r.ash crops such as safflower, sorghum and soybeans. These area. basic food crops to satisfy a constantly increasing domestic demand. guaranteed producer prices. It would seem that this program is dependent upon the ability of the increases in cash crop production have come about almost exclusively as a result of significant increases in harvested area. The end result of the stagnation in basic food crop production has been agricultura! policy, not only t o stee r the crop mix, but also to gain sizeable 1 ncreases in cropland are. Sorne changes in price policy havc occurred since 1980. �42 However, the success or end result of this new program are not yet known. Numerous factors will weigh heavily on the outcome of 5AM. Such factors as the rate of growth of population as well as the rate of growth and distribution of incomes will heavily influence potential future demand for food and feed crops. Also, the objectives of the next administration (19&2) will undoubtedly influence the outcome of SAM. Furthermore, it is suggested that SAM will not be a shortrun solution to current agricultura! problems. The long-run solutions must -involve these planned increases in total cropland as well as increases in the productivity of ·existing agricultura! areas. Also, a certain degree of structural change wi.11 have to accompany these increases. However, hopefully, the program will yie.ld sufficient benefits to account for the overall effort and amount of resources invested. APPENDIX �&> &> TABLE A.l CORH Total P:roduction Year SUMMARY DATA, 1960-80 YielcS JCg/CUltivated , PUrchaaed by CXl!QSUPO H~-ted Araa Percent 1000 ha Hectare ~ Average Gwlranteed Price Rural Pric• Imports Exports Pesoa¿MT Pesoa/MT 1000 MT 1000 MT 940 940 729 749 762 942 945 28.5 34.1 17 .9 475.8 46.5 457.5 0.1 3.8 0.4 282.B --940 1960 61 62 63 64 5419 6246 6337 6870 8454 5558 6287 6371 6963 7460 975 993 995 987 1133 1965 66 67 68 69 8936 9271 6603 9.)61 8410 7718 8286 7610 7675 7103 1158 1119 1130 1181 1111-4 940 940 940 940 940 959 918 9,10 934 894 12.0 4.5 5.1 5.5 8.4 1347.2 851.9 1254.0 896.6 789 .l 1970 71 7439 7691 7292 7606 6717 1194 1272 73 74 8879 9785 9222 8609 7847 1132 1166 940 940 940 1200 1500 905 900 902 1109 1463 761.B 18.3 204.2 1145. 2 1282.l 2.6 274.4 425.9 31.6 1.6 1975 76 77 78 79• 8448 8017 10137 10931 9255 6694 • 6783 7469 7191 7148 1262 1182 1357 1520 1295 1900 2340 2900 2900 3480 1863 2167 2837 2912 2660.8 913.8 1985.6 1344.4 6.3 4.2 1.4 l. 7 72 16. 7 9.2 10.0 3.3 11.1 17.2 18.2 1265 4450 1980 1/ Marketing SOUICES, Year Sl\ffl, Econotecnia Agricola: Number 9, Septelllber 1979. con•,_,• Aparente• of P:roductoa Agricoª•~ 1925-1978. *1979 Total Production, Harv9eted Area and Yield data fr01a FAO Production Yearbook. Vol..- III, 1979. Gu•ranteed PrJ.cea and, purc:haaed by CONMUPO from CONA.SUPO. 'f'/Ut LE A. 2 EDIBLE BEJ\N SUMMARY O.O.TA, l.960-80 Year Total Production 1000 MT 1960 61 62 63 64 528 723 655 677 891 1965 66 67 6!l 69 859 1013 980 856 834 1970 71 72 73 74 925 953 869 1008 971 1975 76 77 78 79* 1027 739 770 948 1056 , Purchased by CONASUPO Harvested Area Percent 1000 ha Hcctare Guaranteed.!/ Price Average Rural Price Pesos¿MT Pesos¿MT -- Imports Exports 1000 MT 1000 MT 1325 1617 1673 1710 2091 398 447 392 396 426 1750 1750 1750 1750 1342 1564 1647 1693 1726 24.9 9.8 3.3 8.7 8 2 2116 2240 1929 1790 1655 406 452 508 479 504 1750 1750 1750 1750 1750 1744 1790 1755 1758 1800 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 1746 1965 1686 1869 1551 530 485 515 540 626 1750 1750 1750 2300 6000 1848 1976 2031 2992 5602 8.6 0.5 2.7 18.l 39.5 1752 1315 1630 1580 1585 11. 3 0.2 38.6 28.8 0.7 586 562 5000 5250 5250 6000 8000 5260 4699 5434 7500 104.4 0.2 29 .3 1.2 0.2 42.2 130. l 44.l 21.l 3.2 11.0 35.4 33.2 26.2 15.7 Yield Kg/Cultivated 1980 472 600 666 0.2 (O) 2.4 31.6 :.w.1 16.5 102.1 56.4 79.8 53.5 12000 Y Marketing Year Sources: SARH, Econotecnia Agricola: Nwn.ber 9, September 1979. (O) signifies less than 50 MT Consumos Ae!rentea of Productos Agricoles 1 1925-1978. *1979 Total Production, Harvested Area and Yield data from FAO Production Yearbook. Guaranteed Prices and \ purchased by CONASUPO trom CONASUPO. Volume III, 1979. .,. '-" �... Tl\BLE A.3 "' SOYBEAN SUM11ARY DATA, 1960-80 Total Year , Purchased Production by CONASUPO 1000 MT Percent Harvested Area Yield Kg/Cultivated 1000 ha Hectare 4.0 Guaranteed!/ Price Average Rural Price ImportsY ExportsY 1000 MT 1000 MT PesosLMT Pe~MT 0.1 0.4 2.4 0.9 1.9 1960 61 62 S3 64 5 20 56 56 60 9.9 27 . 3 27.4 30.1; 1230 1985 2076 2051 1968 1600 1600 1210 1272 1302 1371 1392 1965 66 67 68 69 57 94 131 275 286 27.4 54.2 69.8 l32.9 163.1 2107 1749 1875 2069 1757 1600 1600 1600 1600 1600 1409 1427 1601 1599 1599 2.9 5.0 5.3 12.1 15.6 1970 71 72 73 74 214 255 376 585 491 111. 7 128.9 221.6 311.8 300.l 1920 1985 1700 1877 1636 1600 1600 1600 2700 3300 1635 1658 l._793 3030 3297 101.6 68.3 10.7 42.4 434.8 (O) (Ol (O) 1975 76 598 302 516 334 701 344 . 4 172 . 3 314.2 216 . 4 386.0 1738 1754 1642 1543 1816 3500 3500 4000 5500 6400 3350 4151 5212 5729 22.0 347.9 525.l 891.6 (O) 77 78 79* 16.5 23.0 0.1 0.3 1980 Y Y 8000 Marketing Year (O) signifies less than 50 MT Trade figures don't account fer oil or meal. sources: SARH, Econotecnia Agrícola: Consumos Aparentes of Productos Agricoles, 1925-1978. volume III, Number 9, September 1979. *1979 Total Production# Harvested Area and Yield data from FAO Production Yearbook. 1979, Cu.aranteed Pr~c•• and, purcha-4 by CONASUPO rroa CONMIUPO. TABLE A . 4 WHEAT SUMMARY DATA, 1960-80 Year Total Production 1000 MT , Purchased by CONASUPO Harvested Area Percent 1000 ha Yield Kg/Cultivated Guaranteed.!/ Price Average Rural Price Hectare Pesos/MI' Pesos/MT Imports Exports 1000 MT 1000 MT 1960 61 62 63 64 1189 1401 1455 1702 2203 840 836 747 319 818 1417 1676 1946 2079 2692 913 913 913 913 913 868 912 843 915 936 4.4 7.6 27.1 46.2 62.4 0.1 0.2 l. 3 72.6 576.3 1965 66 67 68 69 2150 1647 2122 2080 212r, 858 730 778 790 841 2505 2254 2724 2632 2765 913 913 913 913 913 944 882 849 857 849 12.5 1.1 l. 2 1.6 o.e 684.9 47.8 279.l 3.0 252.9 1970 71 72 73 74 2676 1830 1809 2090 2788 886 614 686 640 774 3020 2981 2634 3264 3602 913 913 913 913 1300 842 861 852 890 1344 1.1 177 .1 641.5 719.6 976.6 41. 7 85.8 16.9 12.4 20.l 1975 76 2798 3363 2455 2784 2272 778 894 708 759 628 3596 3761 3464 3666 3618 1750 1 750 2050 2600 3000 1792 1739 2127 2601 88.5 5.3 456 . 4 458.5 45.l 21.0 25.5 21. 5 77 78 79* 34.5 35 .5 44.1 26.1 38.1 44.5 19.S 1980 Y 3350 Marketing Year Sources: SARH, Econotecnia Agr¿.,: ~: Number 9, September l9 1~e (O) signifies less th~n SO MT Consumos AJ2!!ren~es of Productos A2ricoles, 1925-1978 . *1979 Total Production, Harv<><>t,···· !\rea and Yield data from FAO Production Yearbook. Guaranteed Prices and , purchased by CONASUPO from CONASC:PO. Volwne III, 1979. -"" .._, �... 00 TABLE A.5 CAAIN SORCIIUM SUMMARY DATA, 1960-80 Total Production Year ~ \ Purchased by CONMUPO Harveeted Area Perc_<1_nt Yield Kg/Cultivated 1000 ha Hectare Cuaranteed!/ Price Average Rural Price Importa Exporta Pesos/MT 1000 MT 1000 MT Pesos/MT 0.1 1960 61 62 63 64 209 390 295 402 525 116 116 117 197 276 1797 2491 2516 2036 1901 525 550 565 560 636 564 558 584 601 9.5 31.3 58.7 137 .9 21.4 1965 66 67 68 69 746 1410 1666 2132 2455 314 575 673 829 883 2376 2450 2475 2570 2781 625 625 625 625 625 632 63)1 620 622 639 33.9 22.9 4.5 60.6 11.7 34.9 392. 7 166.1 43.3 1970 71 72 73 74 2747 2515 2611 3269 3499 920 935 1108 1184 1155 2829 2689 2355 2760 3028 625 625 725 950 1420 646 681 736 848 1268 25.9 17.l 246.3 13.6 426. 7 4 3 .8 57.7 0.2 0 .6 0.3 1975 76 4125 4026 4324 4190 3902 1455 1251 1413 1397 1456 2855 3219 3060 2999 2680 1600 1760 2030 2030 2335 1574 1660 1998 2094 835.1 44.6 714.5 729.2 0.2 0 .3 77 78 79* 0.3 1.0 1.2 3.8 12.1 14.2 17.7 (O) 0.1 0.4 ( O) l. 3 2900 1 980 Y (O ) (O) Marketing Year sourcea: ■ ignifies leas than 50 MT ConsU1110s Aparentes of Productos Agricoles, 1925-1978. SARK, Econotecnia Agricola: volume 111, NUll\ber 9, September 1979. *1.919 Total. Producti.on . Karv••te4 Ar•• and Yi•ld data f'raa FAO Produ c_i;_~n Ye_arbook . o..aaran~ •rLoe• and, P\U'Oha■ed by cc.ur.aUPO ~roa 1979 . cxncaauPO. -r-•~- .,,.,_. SAJrFLOWl!;R SUMMARY DATA, Year Total Production 1000 MT 1960 61 62 63 64 32 41 46 47 47 1965 66 67 68 69 1970 7l 72 73 74 197 5 76 77 78 79• \ Purchased by CONASUPO Harvestad Area Percent 1000 ha Yield Kg/Cultivated Hactare i96o-eo ---Guaranteed!/ Average Price Rural Price Peaos/Mr Pesoa/MT 25 32 36 36 35 1248 1260 1270 1298 1325 --1500 1500 1245 1315 1269 1308 ¡379 79 236 149 102 208 58 164 100 85 144 1354 1432 1486 1191 1443 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1369 1390 1460 1478 1504 288 410 2 71 298 272 175 264 198 197 191 1645 1550 1364 1506 1421 1500 1500 1500 1600 3000 1542 1555 1575 1896 3748 363 184 403 429 496 1466 1299 1284 1435 1341 32002/ 330~/ 4000=' 4600 5500 3365 3650 4186 5645 532 240 518 615 665 10.3 36.6 -- -81.2 l. 7 -- -- Import..Y ExportsY 1000 Mr 1000 MT (O) (O) (O) (O) 50.6 21.9 (O) 0.3 47.4 12.7 5.8 0.1 (O) (O) (O) (O) 1980 6000 Y Y Y Marketing Year (O) signifies leas than 50 MT For irrigated areas, 3200 pesos in 1976, and 3,900 pesos in 1977. Trade figures don't account for oil or fflQal. Sources: SARH, Econotecnia Agricola: Number 9, September 1979. Consumos Aparentes of Productos Agricoles, 1925-1978. *1979 Total Production, Harvested Area and Yield data from FAO Production Yearbook. Guaranteed Prices and \ purchased by CONASUPO from CONASUPO. Volume 111, 1979. ~ "' �.,. TABLE A.7 o "' PADDY RICE SUMMARY DATA, 1960-80 Year \ Purchaaed Total Production by CONASUPO 1000 MT Percent 1960 61 62 63 64 327 332 288 1965 Harveated Yield Kg/CUltivated Ar•a 1000 ha Cuarantee<\1/ Price Hectare Average Rural Price Pesoa/M'I' Peso■/M'I' Import.Y Exportsl/ 1000 M'I' 1000 M'I' 274 142 146 133 134 132 2297 2275 2158 2199 2070 850 900 900 1050 1100 891 928 1008 1056 1077 22.3 0.2 0.1 2.1 (O) (O) 67 68 69 377 372 417 347 394 128 152 168 138 152 2734 2439 2482 2503 2582 1100 1100 1100 1100 1100 1137 1125 1098 1145 1187 17 .8 11.5 (O) (O) (O) 1970 71 72 73 74 405 369 403 450 491 149 153 156 150 172 2703 2404 2582 2996 2843 1100 1100 1100 1100 3000 1190 1226 1127 1608 2691 16.3 0.8 0.7 37.9 71.3 1975 76 77 78 79* 716 463 567 401 489 256 159 180 121 151 2792 2907 3143 3307 3238 2500 30003/ 3100f; 3100"' 3720 2816 3025 3012 3539 (O) (O) 296 66 4.6 0.7 3.3 12.7 35.S 7.4 19.8 1980 Y Y Y 2.0 3.0 63.0 0.3 (O) 9.1 4.8 45.7 (O) (O) 11.8 12.0 4.2 (O) 0.3 3.2 59.6 0.1 0.1 4450 Marketing Year (O) signifies lesa than 50 M'I' Cle;in rice For sinaloa rice, 27!0 Sources: peso■ • SARli, Econotecnia Aqrir.ola: Nurnber 9, Septelllber 1979. *1979 Total Producti.on . Herveated C\iarant..-4 Pri.c•■ and , Ar•• Consumos ~parentes of Productos Agricoles, 1925-1978. and Yield data fra.'""° Production Yearbook. Volume llt, 1979. p.a-roha.e..S by CONA8U90 IS'Clal CONaa\Jrla. TABLE A.8 COTTON SUMMARY DATA, 1960-80 Year Total Production 1000 MT \ Purchased by CONASUPO Harvested Area Percent 1000 ha --Yield Kg/Cul tiva ted Hectare Cuaranteed.!/ Price Pesos/MT Average Rural Price ImportsY Exports~_/ Pesos/MT 1000 MT 1000 MT 1 960 61 62 63 64 470 449 485 535 565 899 793 787 0,:6 808 523 566 617 632 699 6056 6434 6272 6310 6363 1965 66 67 68 69 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.8 577 521 494 591 397 324.3 315.8 433. 7 379.l 327.2 813 695 662 705 513 710 750 747 834 774 6399 6403 6378 6382 6287 1970 7l 72 73 74 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.5 333 396 416 392 512 218.5 459.3 284. 2 323.8 378.1 411 457 523 425 578 812 866 796 922 887 6579 7541 8358 13929 11267 197 5 76 7.0 7.4 6.4 8.9 8.4 205 223 418 366 222. 7 173.0 222.4 217.9 203.9 226 234 419 349 907 953 997 1047 12065 27116 27610 30435 11.l 91.9 21.4 0.7 37.9 179.l 152.8 199.6 77 78 79 1980 -.!/ Cotton does not receive a guaranteed producer price. Soureest SARH, Econotecnia Agricola: Consumos Aparentes of Productos Airicoles, 1925-1978. Nwnber 9, September 1979. Volume III, ::1 �52 Vil. 53 (12) Ross, John B., The Economic System -0! '.~exico. California Institute Bibliography (1) Compania Nacional de Substancids Populares (CONASUPO), Que Es (13) Secretaria de Agricultura y Recursos Hidraulicos, Econotecnia CONASUPO? Mexico, D.F., 1978. (2) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Voice": Mexico, A Growing Market FAO Production Yearbook. Volume 33, Statistics Series No. 28, Rome, ltaly, 1979. (4) Food and Agriculture Organization, Agriculture and Development: Agrícola: Mercado del Huevo. Volume II, Number 10, Mexico, D.F., October 1978. for U.S. Farm Products. January 1981. (3) Food and Agriculture Organization, of International Studies , Stanford, California, 1971. (14) Ibid., Econotecnia Agrícola: Agrícolas "Ceres"; FAO Review on Mexico's New Frontier: The Humid Tropics. September-October 1979. 1925-1978. Consumos Aparentes de Productos Volume III, Number 9, Mexico, September 1979. (15) Secretaria de Agricultura y Recursos Hidraulicos, Subsecretaria de Agricultura y Operacion Direccion General de Economia Agricola, Congreso Nacional Sobre Estadísticas Agropecuarias y Forestales: Billion-Dollar Markets as U.S. Sales Rise 13 Percent Above 1978 Precios de los Productos Agropecuarios y Forestales y Costos de Leve!. Volume XVII, Number 5, Washington, D.C., May 1980. Produccion. Mexico, D.F., November 1979. (6) Ibid, "Foreign Agriculture": SAM Is Launched; Mexico Self-Sufficiency In Basic Foods, Reduced lmports. Volume XIX, Number 1, Washington, D.C., January 1981. . (1_6) Secretaria de Programacion y Presupesto, Plan Global de Desarrollo, 1980-8~. Mexico, 1980. (17) Sillas, Luis, Projection of the Mexican Supply of Selected Agricultura! (7) !bid, "Grains." FG-21-81, Washington, D.C., May 26, 1981. Products to 1985 and 1990: (8) Looney, Robert E., Mexico's Economy: Unpublished M.S. Thesis, University of Missouri, May 1981. A Policy Analysis with Forecasts to 1990. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1978. Mellar, John W., "The Basis for Agricultura! Price Policy." A/0/C Teaching Forum, No. 22, November 1972. (10) !! Mexico Joins (5) Foreign Agricultura! Service, "Foreign Agriculture": (9) D.F., Oficina de Asesoros del C. Presidente, Sistema Alimentario Mexicano, Mexico, D.F., March 1980. (11) Office of the Counselor for Agricultura! Affairs, Mexico and lts Agriculture: July 1981. A Developing Market. U.S. Embassy, Mexico City, The Impact of the Oil Revenues. (18) World Bank, Special Study of the Mexican Economy: Issues and Prospects. Report No. 2307-ME, May 30, 1979. Major Policy �DEMOGRAPHIC ANO ECONOMIC CORRELATES OF DEVELOPMENT AS MEASURED BY ENERGY CONSU11PTJON * John V. V. Saunde/l,6 a.nd Geolt.ge R, Re-i.nhaJLt ** RESUMEN El c.orn.umo de ene/1.g.la peJL c.~p.lta. .se 1telaclon6, en 112 tittea..s del mundo, c.on una .seJúe de vaJúablu ec.on6mlc.a.6 y demog1t6.6i_c.a.6. Se enc.ow.6 a.soc..iac,i,onu lútealtM palla. cua.tlr..o vaJúablu ec.on6mlc./T.6, y una. a.soclaci6n c.u1tvil.htc.a1t, c.on una. c.wtva. en 601tma. de J, palla CLLa.tlto va!Li.abf.u demogll6.6,i.c.a.6. Se en1c.ontll.6 la cli.6:tlúoo.cl6n exponenclaf. y= e-x palla. f.a6 c.uJtva.s de f.a6 vaJúab.fu den1091tá6i.c.a.6 l.t.ua. c.ltLLda. de naiali.dad, ta.t,a. de moWlUdad .út6an.t<:..f, pMc.ento.je de mueM:u debida& a. en6e1tmedadu .út6ec.clo.sa.s y c.on:ta.g,i.o.sa.s, y expectativa. de v.lda.). U.t<:.Uzan.do una tabla de 6unclonu exponenclaf.u uno puede dete/Un-Ú'ta/1. vaf.o1tu ptVta. .fa cü..6:tlúbucl6n de u.t.u vaJúabf.u y la ta.sa. CJWda de mo/tta.f,idad palla c.u.alqtLielt n-lvel de c.on..sumo de ene1tg.la. que .se duee. SW.IMARY Pvr. c.ap.l:ta. c.orn.ump.t<:.on 06 eneJtgy in 112 wottid altea& WM '1.elated :to a. Ull.lU 06 ec.onom.lc. and demog1ta.ph.lc. vaA.lab.fu. L.inetVt a.s.socla.t<:.orn. we1te 6ound 601t 6ouJt ec.onomic. vall.labf.u, and a * E.f p11uente .tila.bajo, pubUc.ado polt .fa Rev.l6:ta "Vemog1taphlf" ** *** !Vol. 4. No. 2, 7967), .se 1tep1toduc.e c.on 11U:to1t.lzacl6n exp'1.Ua de PopuWi.on MMclati.on 06 Amelt.lc.a. Un.lvell,6,i;ty of, Ff.oll.ida. Et 0'1.. John V. V. Sa.undeJr,6 u PM6e&o1t Fulbll.lght c.o.fabo1tando a.uualmen:te ('11 .fa Uc.enclatulla. en E.sta.dL6.t<:.ca. Social c.on upec..la.Uda.d en Vemog'1a.6,[a qu() -6e .lmpa.ll:te w uta Inf.i tituc,¿ón. �57 56 CWt.v.lUne.all. a.6M ci.a.tlon ,{JI the 60'1 m 06 a. J c.wi.ve 60'1. 6owi. demog!Ui.ph,{_c_ va1W1blu. It t00.6 6owtd tha.t the expone,i;tútl cUli,púbu;tion y= e-x 60'1. the c.U/1.ve.6 6ott the demog'1.a.ph,i,c. va.tr.,lablu (CII.Ude bWh Ji.a.te, ,{Jl6ant molLtaii.,t,y Ji.a.te, peJi.c.ent 06 de.a.thli 61Lom c.onta.g.lou.6 a.nd .út6e.c.UoU6 de&ea.6U, a.nd U6e expec..ta.nc.y). By U6.útg a. ta.ble 06 exponen.ti.al 6unct.lonh, one c.a.n dete!UrLi.ne va.lu.u 60'1. the cLUt/ubu;tion 06 thet.e va/W1blu a.nd the CII.Ude dea.th Ji.a.te. 60'1. a.ny du.l'1.ed level 06 e.neJi.g!{ c.ol'U)ump,U_on. The basic assumption of this paper is that per capita consumption of energy represents the most satisfactory single index of both demographic and economic development presently available. The deve1 opment of soc i et i es has been accompan i ed step-bystep by the discovery of ever more efficient energy converters having increasingly large capacity, and by their widespread use. These converters, in turn, have made possi ble new and more complex forms of social organization. Jj Energy data in this paper are taken from the United Nations Statistical Yearbook (1965) where the data are stated in Kilograms of coal equivalent. Thus, a given number of units of energy consumed per capita refers to the number of Kilograms of coal equivalent consumed. Included in the computations, in addition to the population base, are consumption of coal, lignite, petroleum products, natural gas, and hydro- and nuclear electricity. !...I See Flr.ed ComeU, Ene.Ji.gy and Soudy (New YoJik: McGJiaw-H.lll, 1955). Thus, low-order energy conversion, such as that of plants, animal s, sa il s, windmi 11 s, water whee1s, and man himse1f, are excluded. Although these statistics share with all others a degree of imperfect i bil i ty, there is rea son to be1; eve that they are considerably more accurate in their reflection of states of development than per capita income, which has conmonly been used for this purpose. Perhaps per capita consumption of energy for nonindustrial purposes could give a better index of social development, but unfortunately, that index is not available. Fi rst, the accounting procedures for canpi 1ing the basic consumption statistics for the various sources of energy are relatively simple. Production statistics and exports and imports of the various sources of energy are easily obtained 7ran relatively few sources. Second, conversion t-0 a uniform measure can be accomplished by uniform conversion factors. Relatively little estimation is necessary to determine the basic amounts. Per capita income statistics, by contrast, encounter cons1derably greater problems, with regard to both compilation and conver~ion to a standard unit of value. National accounting procedures, particularly in underdeveloped countries, are often rather arbitrary and heavily rel iant on estimates. Per capita income within the same country does not provide a uni fonn measure of acquisitive power for different periods, although acquisitive power may be substantially affected by changes in prices. Thus, for example, the fact that national and per capita income in the United States was approximately halved during the years, 1929-34 does not mean that real per capita income was halved, for prices dropped. When the conversion of figures for several nations into a standard unit, usually the dollar, is made, the difficulties �58 59 are multiplied and compounded. Assuming stable currencies and ignoring the aggravating factor of varying degrees of i nflation in the economies of different countries, it is only possibl e to know, within very broad limits indeed, the equivalency of per capita income figures for widely diverse areas of t he world . Y urbanization and related factors whi ch accompany development. (3) The mean age of the population and the percentage of the population 15 years old or older increase as a consequence of reduced birth and death rates, and reduced birth rates diminish the annual rate of increase. (4) Educational levels rise so that higher percentages of the population complete a mínimum of five years of education. PROCEDURES All areas of the world with populations of one million or more as listed in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook (1964) are included . Energy consumption figures were taken from the United Nations Statistical Yearbook. Economic and demograph~c data to be related to energy consumption were chosen to coincide as cl osely as possible in point of time with available data for energy consumption. Energy consumption data were available for 112 world areas, and other data were available for a varying number of these same areas . The demographic dependent variables were selected on the basis of four assumptions. (1 ) Development will produce a reduction of deaths in general -as measured by the crude death rate and especially from infectious and contagious diseases- with a consequent increase in the expectat:on of l ife at birth as a result of improved diet, living conditions, sanitation, and medical services. (2) Birth rates decrease as a consequence of 'Y See, 60'1 .ú i6.tanc.e, Edwand G. St.ocflwe.11 , "Sorne VPmogllapfúc Co/¡J[_ei.aiU 06 Economic Vevel.opme.nt"', Rw,,ai ~C!_<;i,p_lEE..Y_, XXXI, 2 (Januatty, 7966), 216 - 24. I n .tfúó Mticlc, U6.i.ng pe!t c.ap,i,ta .&,come a6 the meMw,,e. ofi econumi.c. de.veiopmen:t, the. autholl e.v-i.dvit.f.y l«Ló nolf.ce.d to /¡(1,~0U to g'1.oup.i.ng the 49 coun:tft-i.M f¡olf. wfúch he. nound app'1op1¡,i,a:te. data -i.n:to nOulf ca:teg o'1 Ú.6 and :thm to lf.e.60'1.t to u6,¿ng '1ank ollde.~ C(ll¡lf('Cat.i.on M a mea.611'1<' a.660Ctat..i.on. . en Iconomic variables •ere selected on the basis of three assumptions. (1) Development will result in increased consumption of steel and newsprint per capita in response to industrialization, changes in consumption patterns, and the greater reliance on mass c0111Tiunications. (2) The per capita consumption of calories of animal origin as food will increase. (3) In response to the shift from agriculture to industry, the following changes will occur in the economically active population. The percentage of men 15 years old or older who are economically actiYe and engaged in agriculture (the primary sector) will decrease; the percentage of women 15 years old or older who are economically active will increase; the percentage of economically active W01nen who are occupied in- commerce, banking, and real estate will increase; the percentage of economically active men in professional and technical fields will increase; and, finally, that the percentage of the inactive population enrolled in school will increase. Linear correlation coefficients were calculated, scattergrams were plotted for all of these measures, anda line was fitted to the data by inspection. RESULTS Low correlations were found far several of the variables and �60 the scattergrams for these did not reveal any other type of association. In others, unusual distributions of the variables made linear analysis inaccurate . The correlation with the death rate, for instance, was good- -0. 59-but the scattergram revealed distortions resulting from incomplete reporting of deaths, even though only countries which considered their reporting to be substantially complete were ir.cluded. Linear association were found fer the four followi ng economi e variables: per capita consumption of steel and newsprint, percent of the economically active male population engaged in the primary sector, and the percent of economically active women employed in commerce, banking, and real estate . Romanía, Bulgaria, Hungary, Russia, Poland, East Gennany, and Czechoslovakia were excluded from consideration with regard to newsprint consumption. The government-contro 11 ed press in these countri es placed a ceil ing on newsprint consumption per capita so that, although considerable variation existed in energy consumption per capita among them, newsprint consumption was virtually the same fer all. Curvilinear association, in the form of a J curve, was found fer the following demographic variables: crude birth rate, infant mortality rate, percentage of deaths from contagious and infectious deseases, and life expectancy. In order to enhance the comparabili ty of the distributions, unifonn scale values were calculated by equating the highest value of a given variable to 100 and the lowest to zero, with the remaining values receiving corresponding intermediate seores. In two instances (life expectancy and the percent of males in agriculture) the vertical scale was inverted to permit more direct comparisons. Distributions of the economic and demographic variables are closely similar among themselves, particularly with regard to the demographic variables. 61 DISCUSSION Development as measured by energy consumption per capita is associated with a number of economic and demographic variables. The curvil inear associ at ion wi th demographi e variables suggests three distinct levels of the impact of development on the vital processes. A strong negative correlation holds until energy consumption reaches 300 kilograms per capita, decreases between 300 and 2,000 kil ograms per ca pi ta, and drops to el ose to zero beyond 2,000 kilograms per capita. At the level of developm2nt represented approximately by a 2,000 kilograms per capi ta consumption of energy, v·ital rates become relatively stable at a low level and life expectancy at a high level with but little room for either to continue its upward pr downward trend as the case may be. Beyond this point, increases in energy consumption are .reflected int the ecú,1omic variables. There appear ~o be three phases, then, in the impact of development on vital processes. This suggests, moreover, that world areas may be meaningfully categorized by stages with regard to their level of development as reflected in vital rates by using the foregoing l imits . tconomic variables, on the other hand, show little inclination to level off at higher values of energy consumption. The relationship between energy consumption and such economic variables as steel production is obvious. Likewise, newsprint consumption and women in white collar occupations reflect, in a linear relationship, the progress indicated by increasing energy consumption. 0ne economic variable, however, shows tendencies to reach a limit. This variable, percent of the population in agriculture, cannot drop below the level needed to sustain the host population. Perhaps future scientific developments in agriculture will reduce this variable fer sorne countries, but in �62 (,3 the current state of the arts, there appears to be a lower limit. At this point in the procedure, the authors felt that the results, especially the J curves of the demographic variables, could be used to produce more a useful and sophisticated analysis. Of special interest was the uniformity of the l curves . On the uniform scale, the four curves were similar enou9h so as to be expressed by one equation, if one existed. Sorne mathematical investigation revealed that, in fact, one equation did exist for a11 four curves, and that thi s equat ion he1d regardl ess of the scale used. This equation is the exponential distribution y= e- x where x equals the independent variable, the level of consumption of energy, and y equa 1s the dependent variable, whatever thdt variable may be. The relationship between the four) curves and the exponential distribution is clearly shown in Figure l. By using a table of exponential functions, found in many mathematical handbooks, values for the distribution can be found for any desired level of energy consumption.Y For purposes of analysis, the scale for the energy consumption is reduced by a factor of 1000; therefore 4000 kilograms (of coal) is expressed as 4.000. Keeping this in mind, Table 1 gi ves sorne va 1ues of e--1< for vari ous values of x, the level of energy consumption. e, o o CD o o !i !; :; i; z : j. Q . ,.,, ...·i", :: ii: See, 60" ,¿114,tance , ChaJfl<!A V. Hodg~arr , Samuel M. Shelby, arrd RobeM C. WeMt , FJfom Harrdbooh. 06 (Cleveiand: Chemi.cal RubbeJf Pu6l.l6h~ g /.fath<1maüral Tabl<!6 , Chemilit~y and Phy6~c6 C'ompany , 1959), pp. 153-59. o "" i5 ...J IIJ ~ ~ 4 z a: IIJ ~~ X!!: 11) IIJ !¡1 !:j !l, ► C!) .., a: o o : !..¡., g ~ 11) 31\t:>S 7Vl.lN]NOdX3 ftijO:IINn if o ofO : ¡!.!i ~ :::::) 11) ~ o ,-. z .., ~ �64 65 Table l. - VALUES 0F e-x F0R VARIOUS VAL UES 0F THE LEVEL 0F ENERGY C0NSUMPTI0N, x e-x X o oo o.........•............................. 1.0000 500....................................... . 6065 1000....................................... .3758 1500......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2000... . ........................... . ....... 2500..................... . ................. 3000......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2231 .1353 .0821 . 0479 3500....................................... 4000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0302 . 0183 5000....................................... 6000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7000 ................................ : . . . . . . . 0067 . 0025 . 0009 8000....................................... ID z o 8 f2 ¡::: Q. ~ (/) o o z o oU) u ~ -..J Q. 111 41&1 u ... (/) ► CD e 111 z 111 8 ~ 8o 11. 0 ~ ¡:: L 8 ' u § By placing constants into the basic equation, prediction equations were derived for each of the four variables. In addition, analysis revealed that the distortion caused by incorrect reporting for the death rate was corrected by use of the exponential distribution. The following prediction equations were developed for the demographic variables. N E 8 ~ 1l j 11 s e 111 L .!! t E 1 l 1 .,¡ 8 2 o S3n1YA 31Y:>S NYO_.Nll 3. Birth rate, y = 48 e-x +l4. 4. Expected life 3t birth, both sexes. y=l47-74e-x. 5. Death rate, y =28 e: x+7. J,! .1 5 u i ~ 2. Percentage of deaths from selected causes, y=55e- x+6. 1 • ~ Jt . 0003 l. Infant mortality rate, y=235e - x+l5. JA é la, �66 Prediction equations were developed for the linear, economic variables. These equations are based on the least squares estimators of the prediction line and are shown in Figure 2. The following pre-iction equations were developed for the economic variables. LOS INFORMES PRESIDENCIALES EN MEXICO l. Percent ofthe male population in agriculture, y=68.5 -0.0lx. 2. Pér capita consumption of steel, y=27.5 + 0.077x. 3. Percent cf the female population in conrnerce, y= 2 + 0.0035x. 4. Per capita consumption of newsprint, y= O+ 0.006x. CONCLUSIONS The s1gnificance of these equations, especially for purposes of prediction, is important. Energy consumption is relatively easy to obtain and is fairly accurate. Other demgraphic and economic variabfes are much more difficult to obtain and are . often crude estimates. These equations can be used as an easy and accur.ate method of detennining these economic and demographic variables. The greater significance, however, líes in future research. At this point, there is no proof that the demogr~phic variables are actually exponentially distributed. The degree of mathematical sophistication and the computer time required is beyond the scope of this paper. The relationship between the demographic variables and the exponential distribution is worthy of furthpr research. En México, formular y rendir el Informe por parte del titular del Poder Ejecutivo Federal es observancia de la obligación que la Constituci6n impone. S61 o en dos ocasiones e1 Presidente de 1a Repúbl i ca ti ene obligación .de comparecer ante el poder legislativo: cuando toma posesi6n de su encargo, y el primero de septiembre de cada año, fecha en que el Congreso inicia su perfodo ordinario de sesiones. El fundamento jurfdico de esta .última obligaci6n, se encuentra en el artfculo 69 de la Constituci6n Polftica de los Estados Unidos Mexica'!()s que establece: ªA la apertura de sesiones ordinarias del Congreso asistirá el Presidente de la República ·y presentari un infonne por escrito, en el que se manifieste el estado general que guarda la administración pública del pais". Este artfculo tiene su lógica correspondencia con el articulo 65 de la propia Constitución que señala sobre el particular: "El Congreso se reunirá a partir del primero de septiembre de cada año para celebrar sesiones ordinarias .... " Mas la historia de México enseña que no ha sido siempre así. Escudriñando los antecedentes legales, desde que México se rige • U Au.tM, qule.n ocup6 el ca1tgo dr Swreta/Úo Ge.ne11ai de Gob-le.11.no en el 'útado de Nuevo León dwra.nte el. pe11.iodo 1976-1979, pe11.te.nece a la Piaiita de P11.06uo11.u de uta InJ.itiluci6n e i.mpa1¡:te la ma.teJLia Evoh1ci6n de la Civ-ilizaci.6n Contempo11.ánea. �68 por una Constitución, encontramos que, según la Constitución de 1824, el Presidente debía comparecer el primero de enero y no se especificaba que para rendir un informe de su actuación. En efeato, el artículo 67 del ordenamiento legal citado establecía textualmente: "El Congreso General se reunirá todos los años el primero de enero en el lugar que se designará por una ley. En el Reglamento Interior del mismo, se prescribirán las operaciones previas a la paertura de sus sesiones, y las formalidades que se han de ob~ervar en su instalación". Por su parte, el 68 decía: "A ésta asistirá el Presidente de la Federación, quien pronunciará un discurso análogo a este acto tan importante; y el que preside el Congreso contestará en términos generales. Por su parte, la Constitución de 1857 señalaba en su articulo 63: "A la apertura de sesiones del Congreso asistirá el Presidente de la Unión y pronunciará un discurso en el que manifieste el estad~ que guarda el país. El Presidente del Congreso contestará en ténninos generali!S" . Queremos hacer notar. que tanto la Constitución del 24 como la del 57 establecían que el Presidente del Congreso contestará los infonnes en términos generales. Sin embargo, la vigente no señala nada sobre el particular. La respuesta q~ también en términos generales expresa en la actualidad quien preside el Congreso en el mes de septiembre, tiene Ju base jurfdica en el artículo 69 del Reglamento Interior del citado Congreso. En su artículo 62, la Constitución del 57, disponía: "El Congreso tendrá cada año dos períodos ordinarios de sesiones ordinarias: el primero comenzará el 16 de septiembre y terminará el 15 de diciembre; y el segundo, improrrogable, comenzará el primero de abril y terminará el último de mayo". El Presidente entonces tenía que informar dos veces al año , de donde se desprende que fue el Gener~ Porfirio Díaz, por sus continuas reelecciones, quien ha dicho mayor cantidad de tales Informes; sesenta y uno, para ser exactos, cifra a la que, afortunadamente, ningún otro 69 Presidente llegará, ni siquiera remotamente, gracias al sabio principio de no reelección que forma parte esencial de nuestra vi?a jurídico-política. En los últimos tiempos, cada titular del Poder Ejecutivo ha rendido sus respectivos infonnes en un ambiente nacional donde impera el trabajo, la paz y la concordia. Pero no siempre ha sido así, algunos Informes fueron expresados en medio de vicisitudes porque también de vicisitudes estaba llena la vida nacional. Cuando México inició su vida constitucional a partir de 1824, los infonnes presidenciales se caracterizaban por el repetí do uso de 1os conceptos de independencia y 1i bertad, en virtud de que la libertad y la independencia acababan de ser obtenidas .después de años de lucha; inmediatamente después, en los ~ños subsecuentes, el tema giraba en derredor del FedeNlismo o Centralismo que eran los dos tipos de regímenes republicanos que se discuttan en aquel entonces. En los documentos presidenciales de la época era frecuente que los mandatarios dieran cuenta tie amenazas bélicas . internas o de invasiones extranjeras, particulannente de 1845 a 1848 cuando México sufrió la ignominiosa mutilación de su territorio. Era usual también el señalamiento de la escasez de recursos materiales para atender las necesidades nacionales, entre las cuales destacaba 1~ formación de un ejército poderoso que fuera leal al gobierno y que evitara nuevas invasiones. Fue Benito Juarez, defensor de la justicia y escudado en la norma jurídica, quien llenó sus informes presidenciales con un contenido propio de la firmeza y entereza con que afrontó los graves problemas de su tiempo. Sabedor de que la razón y el derecho le asistían como Presidente de la República frente a los �70 enemigos internos y externos, sus Informes fueron siempre expresión de integración nacional y reafirmación de la mexicanidad. Después de que la República termina victoriosa sobre el Imperio, se empieza a utilizar en los Informes términos como industria, agricultura, ferrocarri 1es, minería, telégrafos. moneda y otros más, que revelan los aires nuevos que respiraba el país. Las referencias a guerras intestinas y contiendas políticas fueron dejando su lugar a las acciones puramente administrativas. Es así como ahora, en los Informes Presidenciales de nuestro tiempo ocupan espacios importantes los términos de reforma administrativa, energéticos, seguridad social, comunidad internacional, reforma política, inflación, reforma agraria, productividad y otros que denotan los actual es asuntos de importancia nacional; particularmente hay referencias continuas e importantes al Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, la Comisión Federal de Electricidad, Pemex, Conasupo y Coplamar, que son organismos derivados directamente del proceso constructivo de la revolución 71 Cada primero de septiembre, el titular del Poder Ejecutivo Federal cumple su obligación constitucional de informar a la Nación sobre el estado general que guarda · la administración pública del país. Continúa siendo el acto formal más importante del Presidente de la República en tanto da cuenta de sus decisiones, analiza las circunstancias sociales, políticas y económicas de México, señala los futuros rumbos del país y expresa los criterios que sustenta para ejercer su mandato y afrontar las necesidades nacionales. Lo avanzado de las canunicaciones nos permiten recibir la imagen del acto y escuchar el mensaje presidencial al instante mismo en que se efectúa. Al siguiente día, a todos los rincones de nuestro territorio llega impreso su contenido. Sin embargo, la verdad es que, además de este infome constitucional, en nuestro tiempo el Presidente de México infonna todos los días y desde las diversas tribunas sobre los criterios y acciones de su mandato. La importancia de los actos presidenciales y los medios de difusión tan avanzados en la técnica hacen que todos los días los mexicanos recibamos una oportuna y amplia información sobre las decisiones del primer mandatario. mexicant.. La yida pública de México se ha caracterizado en los últimos años por una voluntad del poder político de dar cuenta de sus decisiones en las formas y al través de los medios más diversos. En este sentido, debemos destacar que ahora la Constitución señala la obligatoria comparecencia de los Secreta:ics de Hacienda y Crédito Público y de Programación y Presupuesto ante la Cámara de Diputados, para que expliquen, respectivamente, las motivaciones de la iniciativa de la Ley de Ingresos y el proyecto de presupuesto para el siguiente año. A estas comparecencias se les hace amplia y precisa difusión en todo el país al través de la televisión y de los diarios. La reunión de la República que se efectúa todos los años el 5 de febrero, es foro desde el cual José López Portillo expresa las tesis políticas que sostiene el régimen que preside. Cada 18 de marzo, la celebración de la expropia~ión petrolera, también es ocasión adecuada para que el Presidente explique su política en relación al petróleo. Las visitas presidenciales a otros países, iniciadas virtualmente en forma amplia por el extinto Presidente Adolfo López Mateos, y continuada por los sucesores hasta el propio López Portillo, han sido también foros propicios para que el Presidente manifieste la posición de México en cuanto a relaciones financieras, comerciales y culturales en el marco internacional; en este orden de ideas. la misma Organización de Nacione~ Unidas, ha sido plataforma para expresar al mundo entero �72 73 la política que México sustenta en relación al uso nacional de energéticos, a la cooperación internacional y a la confraternidad entre las naciones, entre otros temas. El hecho de que el Presidente de México informe cotidianament_e de sus actos, ha propiciado que el mensdje del primero de septiembre se convierta cada vez más en un mensaje esencialmente político, en el cabal sentido del término. Es en esta comparecencia ante el Congreso, en la que el titular del Poder Ejecutivo Federal señala los criterios de la administración pública que preside en todos y cada uno de sus ramos. Las cifras que antes inundaban materialmente todos los textos de los informes, ocupan ahora los anexos que acompañan al documento, y en la más alta tribuna de la República el Presidente expresa el substractum de su política. Podemos, por tanto, afirmar que la historia del país registra ahora un nuevo estilo y una nueva etapa sobre los informes presidenciales. A lo largo de esa historia las formas y n1étodos del Informe del Presidente de México han ido evolucionando como ha evolucionado tambi~n. afortunadamente para bien, la vida del país. No nos asaltan ahora dudas sobre nuestra forma de gobierno como en los principios de nuestra vida constitucional; no nos inquietan posibles desgajes de nuestro territorio como a mediados del siglo pasado. Afrontamos ahora los problemas propios del desarrollo, pero sin titubeos, con firmeza en las decisiones Y con la seguridad que da una madurez política alcanzada a través de nuestra historia, y cuya muestra evidente lo es, cada año, el Informe Presidencial. Cómo serán los Informes Presidenciales en el futuro. digamos, dentro de veinte años? Seguramente se referirán también a problemas, pues cuando se solucionen los del presente nacerán otros; es condición in separnble del progreso. Por los rumbos que. ha llevado el México moderno podemos asegurar que nunca serán dramáticos, que siempre serán solucionables, porque la responsabilidad y la inteligencia con que el poder público ejerce sus funciones, garantizan que M6xico encontrará siempre los caminos de su realización; cuenta para ello con el bien más preciado que país alguno pueda tener: el trabajo y la audacia de todos sus hijos, pues en la misión de engrandecer al país nadie debe sentirse postergado, cualquiera que sea su condición económica o su ideología política. Por eso ningún mexicano es ajeno al Informe Presidencial; en él se refleja la vida nacional de la que todos formamos parte. Somos sujetos activos y receptores al mismo tiempo de las transforn1aciones sociales. Cada vez el informe presidencial motiva que reflexionemos aún más sobre nuestra responsabilidad individual y colectiva. BIBLIOGRAFIA XLVI Legi6.f1ml.'la de .f.o. Cáma1ta de V-<.pu,t,a.do6, Vvr.ec.ho& del. Pueblo Meuc.ano: Méuc.o a tli.avú de 61.J.6 COn6-tituc.-<.One&. Imp11.en-ta de la Cáma11.a de v,¿pu,tadot,, Méuc.o, 1967. XLV1 LegUla.tW!a de l a CámMa de o,¿pu;tadot,, LM Plleúden.tet, de Méxúo a.11te in Nac i ún : ~_~,~~ ,__Ma.n.-<.nú6trrt, lj Vucu._-_ mentol> de 1821 a 1966, Impke.nta de la CámMa. de v,¿pu,tarld , Mé.x icC' , 1966. Te.na Ram úie:, Felipe: Vc>-~,-~,f'!f:__ig!1j.!:!_t uci_onai Me.ú c.ano, Erla ull i ai Pot1zú,1, MéxHc , 19i8 . �1-'LAN I Fl CAC ION DE LOS RECURSOS HIJf1A1lOS Luc.i.nda V,[a: de. fa Ga1¡za * La historia moderna de la planificación de recursos humanos nace al firal de la segunda guerra mundial sobre todo en el seno de los pa íses de la Organización para la Cooperación y Desarrollo Económico (OECD) . Estos países se enfrentaban a la reconstrucción de Europa con una gran carene i a de recursos humanos adecuadamente calificados y al desafío militar y tecnológico de otras potencfas. Esto motivó la necesidad de planificar sus recursos humanos. La planificación de recursos humanos recibe un fuerte impulso en los años sesentas, a partir del ejercicio de planificación que supuso el Plan Regional de Mediterr~neo. Este ejercicio, aunque deficiente en sus resultados, produjo un gran acervo de experiencias y conocimientos utilizables. Los resultados que SP. ~esprenden de los ejercicios de planificación se reducen a recomendaciones muy generales sobre los niveles de calificación requeridos por la economía en un momento o período dados, siendo pre~isamente esta generalidad, el punto fuerte de la planificación :le recursos hur.•anos. Conforme se desea má s detalle en las especificaciones, sobre los niveles de calificación, se encuentra que las recomendaciones que se pueden desprender de la planificación de recursos humanos se vuel vPn frágiles y mds sujetos a errores. * La íllltorn de.( pHH•11tc> t'labaj,·, ,•~ rx-afwnna d" e~ta í11~tit11¡ ,,:., y act,,i1Cir.rnte p~C'6ta ~u6 M~vÚ'i -~. rr: ef 7PHtfof,, 1Jacic'IL'' .!(' [~tw:¡",,.~ de(' í1aiia.1c•. �76 77 En general, se consideran cuatro enfoques para las técnicas de la planificación de recursos humanos . El primero de ellos, se .conoce con el nombre de comparaciones internacionales. Históricamente fue el primero y se hizo uso de él porq ue se careda de los datos necesarios pa r a intentar otra metodología diferente. Lo que el método intenta hacer es comparar un país con otro en términos de sus respecti vos desarrollos educativos y económicos. Del país de mayor desarrollo económico se desprenden recomendaciones para el menor desarrollo en relación a la situación educativa que prevalece en este último. Este mét odo supone que el desarrollo económico es el resultado del desarrollo educativo y confunde de esta -manera correlac ión con causalidad, pues bien podría ser que aún cuando se dé una correlación estr echa entre el desarrollo educativo y el desarrollo económico, ésta esconda el fenómeno de que a mayores niveles de desarrollo económico .se lleven a cabo mayores consumos de educación, de lo cual se desprendería una causalidad en sentido contrario a la propuesta originalmente por el método. Esta metodología no es recomendable para ser usada por si misma. El segundo enfoque se conoce como el de la demanda social. Este enfoque ~o part e de las necesidades de mano de obr a sino de la denianda que la población hace de los ser vicios educat i vos y trata de sati sfacerla. El enfoque se apoya en proyecciones demográficas por grupos de edad, así como de la propensión a cons umir educación con base en indi cadores como la elasticidad educación-ingreso. Este e nfoque supone que a mayor educación corresponde un mayor desarrollo o crecimi ento económico . El t ercer enfoque beneficio cons i ste . eva luar l os costos y t i pos de educac i ón. conoci do como el de análisis de costo como su nombre lo i ndica , en comparar y beneficios de cada uno de los nivel es Y Se i11tentará así reas i gnar los recursos f í sicos, finan cieros y humanos necesarios, de tal manera que se expandan aquellos tipos y niveles de educación o capacitación que proporcionen 1os mayores rendi mientos ec onór.ii cos a 1 mismo tiempo que se intenta que los rendimientos económi cos de la educación (capital humano), sean iguales o mayores que los rendimientos proporcionados por el capital físico. Este enfoque supone también que la educación se traduce en rendimientos económicos; que se pueden calcular l os increment os en l os ingresos que son debidos a incrementos en la educación y que de alguna manera estos ingresos son una aproximación a l os benef icios total es económicos y sociales que se desprenden de l a educación, la capacitación y el adiestramiento . El cuarto enfoque se conoce con el nombre de los r e queri mientos de mano de obra, que integra dos procesos: uno t raduce el crecimient o del Producto Nacional en número de trabajajores Y la calificación necesarios para lograr determinado crecimiento Y el otro, transforma los grados de calificación requerida a ni ve les Y tipos de educaci ón. En este enfoque existen supuestos simi lares a los anteriores como de que la educación se corresponde a t érminos de productividad y que la productividad se traduce en ingr eso. Por otra parte, la teoría ortodoxa o también llamada teoría del capital humano hace poca referenc ia a lo que integra la educación como enseñanza y supone que la educación incrementa la capacidad intelectual del sujeto y que l a capacitación mejora las destrezas requeridas pñra el desempeño del trabajo . Sin detenerse mucho en esto, la teoría ortodoxa hace dos afirmaciones importantes, a partir de las cuales construye su teoría . Estas afirmaciones son, prim ero que todo incremento en la educaci ón o capacita ción resulta r 1 un incr emento proporcional en la productividad del su j eto y seoundo, qu" todo increment o en la �78 79 productividad resulta, a su vez en un incremento equivalente en el ingreso que el sujeto percibe. La teorfa del capital humano tiene su origen en la teorfa económica neoclásica, que parte del supuesto de que a los factores de la producción se les retribuye en la misma medida en que éstos contribuyen al producto. La planificación de recursos humanos nace en el seno de esta teorfa e impl1citamente mantiene la relación directa entre educactón y productividad y entre productividad e ingreso. Sin abandonar totalmente la teoría del capital humano, existe lo que se conoce como Credencialismo, o sea que en realidad la educación incrementa el ingreso pero no incrementa la productividad, ante una mayor oferta de mano de obra con educación, los empleadores otorgan los puestos de trabajo a aquellos sujetos con mayores grados de educación, aún cuando la cantidad y calidad de la educación sobrepase aquell<1 requerida por el puesto de trabajo para el cumplimiento eficiente del mismo. De esta manera la población en busca de empleo, intenta adquirir mayores grados de educación, no por la relación de la educación con la productividad sino poP'que la mayor cantidad de educación les da una credencial superior por tener acceso al mundo de trabajo en situaciones de ventaja. Con esto se provoca una devaluación de la educación a los ojos de los empleadores, quienes exigen mayores niveles de educación. Otra tesis que influye en la planificación de Recursos Humanos es la del mercado dual de trabajo, que se refiere a la existencia de dos mercados de trabajo paralelos; uno moderno y otro tradicional. Algunos autores suponen el origen de la dualidad en fenómenos de orden cultural y otros más lo hacen en la tecnologfa. Esta corriente considera la educación con funciones diferentes según se sitúe en uno de 1os mercados de trabajo o en otro. Los que enfatizan los aspectos culturales parten de que, un incremento en la educación de un individuo que ingresa al mercado de trabajo tradicional .no necesariamente incrementará su ingreso como sucede comunmente en un sistema de castas. Los que enfatizan los aspectos tecnológicos, se basan en la competencia por el empleo y significa que la productividad no está en el individuo sino en el empleo. Los empleos del sector moderno usan máquinas de alta productividad y los del sector tradicional . usan técnicas de baja productividad. Lo que importa es el empleo y no el empleado. En este tema, existe también la tesis del mercado segmentado de trabajo que identifica a los niveles de salarios (ingresi>s) determinados por un complejo de elementos históricos, sociales, polfticos y culturales y niega el principio neoclásico de que el salario (ingreso) quede detenninado por Ta productividad del trabajador. Sin embargo, la posibilidad de que la educación incremente la productividad del indiv~uo no se descarta, esto se logra por otros caminos diferentes de los propuestos por la teorfa del capital humano. Además de que la educación cumple una función político social,· necesaria e fntimamente ligada a la reproducción del capital y por ta11to de las relaciones de producción. La tesis del mercado segmentado de trabajo se ubica en 1a metodologfa marxista y da gran atención al proceso histórico, a las variaciones estructurales, a la política, y en general a la lucha de las clases que la educación tiene dentro de una econom1a capitalista y la distingue de la función que tiene la •educación en una sociedad socialista. Así la educación cumple funciones diferentes según la clase social a la cual pertenece aquel que la adquiere, y as1 como hay diferentes segmentos en el mercado, existen diferentes tipos de educación. Podrfa asumirse que en un extremo está la educación que enseña a mandar y en el otro �80 extremo se encuentra la educación que enseña a obedecer. Existe una educación funcional a cada segmento del mercado de trabajo y no se da movilidad ni entre los diferentes tipos de educación y el adiestramiento incrementan en algo la productividad del sujeto pero no por intermedio del mejoramiento de la capacidad intelectual o de la destreza manual exclusivamente, sino sobre todo por la introyección de hábitos y actitudes, como son por ejemplo: los hábitos de puntualidad, orden, limpieza y en el caso de los trabajadores, las actitudes que permiten la asimilación correcta de órdenes y la resistencia al aburrimiento, entre otras, respondiendo de esta manera a la pregunta sobre lo que en realidad enseña la escuela. La planificación de recursos humanos generalmente integra una serie de supuestos que determinan específicamente su relevancia económica de desarro 11 o. Los supuestos se refieren a: '!.) el concepto de recursos humanos, 2) concepto que se tenga sobre el objetivo de la planificación de recursos humanos, 3) el tramo de edades comprendidas, y 4) el número de instituciones que se comprometan. En primer lugar, la planificación de recursos humanos conti ene una noción de recurso humano con la cual se compromete. Esta noción puede ir desde la que entiende a la persona como un instrumento de la economía, hasta la que se compromete con un concepto de individuo en toda su complejidad y riqueza y que busca resultados socialmente útiles sin ir en contra de la libertad y el desarrollo integral de la persona misma. 81 cado, que la planificación que cuestione la racionalidad misma de las demandas del mercado y busque por el contrario adecuar la es!ructura de producción a las demandas en cantidad y calidad que hace la población. Son muy distintos los supuestos en base a los cuales se hace una proposición o la otra. El tercer grupo de supuestos comprende lo referente al tramo de edades sobre las cuales la planificación hará énfasis. La planificación puede interesarse exclusivamente por el tramo de edades que comprende la educación superior o la educación media, por ejemplo. Sin embargo, las posibilidades en este sentido pueden abarcar desde menos nueve meses hasta e1 momento de la muerte; una planificación integral de recursos humanos tendría que considerar el tramo total de vida. Finalmente el supuesto de las instituciones que se consideran dentro de un ej_ercicio de planificación. La planificación que ponga atención exclusivamente sobre las instituciones educativas estará suponiendo, que dadas las circunstancias concretas, las instituciones de salud y alimentación no son, en ese momento, al menos, importantes en el logro de los resultados de formación que se pretenden . Sin embargo, en un planteamiento más completo y sot:re todo desde la circunstancia de los países en vías de desarrollo, la planificación de recursos humanos muy probablemente tendrá que considerar otros aspectos como son la salud, alimentación y la seguridad social en general. Proceso de Formulación del Plan de Recursos Humanos.U En segundo lugar, los objetivos de la planificación de recursos humanos también contienen supuestos importantes, que habrá que explicitar. No es lo mismo la planificación que busca adecuar la oferta de mano de obra a los requerimientos del mer- La planificación de los recursos humanos debe ser ccnc~bida como parte de la planificación más amplia del desarrollo eco- 1J V~. Ehteban LedeNnan. 1EPES, Sant,¡_ago de CWe, Sept. 1964. �83 82 / nómico y social, por lo tanto es esencial que el proceso de planificación de los recursos humanos se formule a la luz de los objetivos políticos, económicos y sociales del plan de desarroll0. En toda sociedad que entra al camino de la industrialización aumenta la división del trabajo, lo que lleva implícito las "relaciones técnicas" entre diversos niveles. De tal manera, estará basado en tres puntos fundamentales: la expresión del empleo, en forma de una variable meta concordante con otras tales como el maximo crecimiento posible del producto; los requerimientos de mano de obra que plantea un plan de desarrollo económico; y la expresión de ellos en términos de necesidades formativas para integrarse a las metas de la planificación educacional. Es necesario considerar que los tres puntos anteriores no constituyen etapas aisladas, todo lo contrario, ellos están estrechamente vinculados y relacionado~ en el proceso de planificación en un conjunto. La planificación de referencia debe contemplar el desarrollo de los recursos humanos por dos tipos de ca~ales o grupos meta: Uno de los elementos claves que permite interactuar para fijar las metas de empleo -tanto globales como sectoriales- y los diversos requerimientos de mano de obra es el tipo de ubicación sectorial de la tecnología, que a su vez determinará la productividad y la mag,,itud del esfuerzo en cuanto a inversiones se refiere. En otras palabras, hay que tener presente que la eliminación de la subocupación o desocupación está unida estrechamente a la tasa del desarrollo, a la selección de tecnologías, y consecuentemente a los requerimientos de trabajo y a 1as calificaciones de mano de obra. La ocupación global en una economía es producto de un conjunto de empleos y ocupaciones específicas y concretas, en las cuales y en cada una de ellas se necesitan recursos humanos con calificaciones también más o menos específicas. El logro de las metas ocupacionales específicas no puede hacerse con abstracción de las relaciones que existen entre diversos niveles de calificaciones y empleo. a) Educación de las nuevas generaciones y b) Entrenamiento o cursos intensivos a aquellos que ya están en la fuerza de trabajo. Además de las funciones consideradas, un plan debe estab1ecer un sistema que integre y permita analizar las estadísticas de mano de obra, de tal modo que sea posible identificar y anticipar los problemas de los recursos humanos. Por último, debe contemplar la fonnaci6n de un aparato administrativo capaz de llevar adelante la formulación, ejecución Y control de programas de recursos humanos. Este mecanismo administrativo deberá ser concebido en el marco de un sistema nacional de planificación condicionado por las orientaciones de la política de desarrollo, que a su vez determinaran la preparación, la ejecución y el control de planes y programas formulados con la corriente sistemática de información. Es muy difícil que exista la planificación de recursos humanos <;orno proceso sin cumplir éste. Así como la planificación de recursos humanos se concibe como parte de la planificación del desarrollo, en consecuenria las metas físicas y metas de ocupación del país, debtn prever las necesidades de mano de obra que aún en ausencia de un plan general, la previsión adecuada de los recursos humanos permitiría �84 85 evttar en parte los problemas de desocupación -o llamar la atención sobre ellos- y posibles estrangulamientos futuros, en los recursos humanos estratégicos. Las proyecciones de los requerimientos futuros de recursos humanos deberán ser consistentes con las metas globales y sectoriales del desarrollo. En ausencia de un plan general -aún en su presencia- las proyecciones de recursos humanos deberán basarse en una serie de juicios expectativos sobre el desarrollo futuro del país, prod11cto de la experiencia y el estudio de las tendencias históricas y del posible efecto sobre ellas de medidas de política económica futura. Si bien esto significa la existencia de elementos subjetivos en los juicios, en la medida .que exista un plan de desarrollo y se presenten varias hipótesis o alternativas de proyección, mayor será el valor científico de ellos, identificándose con los obje:tivos involucrados en las metas del plan. La fonnulación de un Plan de Desarrollo de Recursos Humanos debe partir de un diagnóstico del problema que perm,ta resolver una serie de condiciones históricas y definir cualitativa y cuantitativamente una situación inicial, con ello se dispondrá del marco de referencia para proponer alternativas de cambio y posibles acciones, de acuerdo a las magnitudes y características de las necesidades de formación de los recursos humanos. De esta manera el diagnóstico debe cumplir con una serie de requisitos como son: - Que permita explicar integralmente el papel de los recursos humanos en la dinámica económica y social de la región. - Que ayude a identificar los factores de evolución histórica del proceso productivo regional. Que sea posible enmarcar la función de la política económica como resultante y efecto de las características de los recursos humanos. Que se resuelva un sistema coherente de interrelaciones sociales y económicas con el objeto de definir las necesidades y requerimientos de formación. Que permita determinar cualitativamente la magnitud y características de las necesidades y requerimientos de fonnación. Que permita determinar cuantitativamente la magnitud y características de las necesidades y requerimientos dé formación. Que sea factible real izarlo continuamente para analizar la evolución del problema y los resultados que se deriven del Plan, en caso de ponerlo en marcha. Que integre las formulaciones de política económica y social como condicionantes de la dinámica futura de la región . Metodológicamente, establecer estos requisitos, significa que el análisis de los recursos humanos debe partir de una serie de premisas relacionadas con la heterogeneidad del sistema productivo y la relación de éste con las acciones de política económica y social. En Tabasco se llevó a cabo un estudio de diagnóstico con un esquema que propone limitadamente la explicación de una serie de aspectos de la política social, incorpora la posibilidad de identificar las caracteristicas ocupacionales mediante indicadores �86 87 del sistema productivo como resultados del proceso de cambio económico. requisitos de puestos de trabajo o calificación para el trabajo. Así se presentó una opción para analizar las disponibfiidades de recursos humanos como resultado del proceso económico-social, centrando la atención en la dinámica educativa y de población, cuyas características están dadas por el nivel de desarrollo de esa entidad . d) Los niveles de instrucción de la fuerza de trabajo ocupada están directamente relacionados a la estructura ocupacional y a la heterogeneidad productiva. Así los recursos humanos, quedó identificado en este análisis como un ente generador de riqueza en el sistema productivo y por lo tanto, el factor principal en la producción, que cumple funciones estructuralmente establecidas en el conglomerado de la fuerza de trabajo. Estas funciones varían en el tiempo y en los sectores económicos. Lo que se traduce en una diversidad de responsabilidades. Asf, las características de estas "responsabilidades" productivas estarán condicionadas por las siguientes premisas: a) El sistema económico está integrado por niveles diferenciales de participación sectorial y dependerá de la importancia relativa del sector industrial, el grado de heterogeneidad del sistema productivo. . b) La hetero9eneidad del sistema productivo se manifiesta en diferenciales de productividad, de tecnología y de absorción de mano de obra, las que a su vez están condicionadas por el tipo de competencia que prevalece en e1 mercado de bienes y servicios . c) La estructura ocupacional del mercado de trabajo está determinada por los diferenciales de productividad, de tecnología y capacidad de absorción, l os que a su vez se traducen en e) Los niveles de instrucción de la fuerza de trabajo reflejan 1a capacidad que el sistema educativo ha tenido para satisfacer 1a demanda social de educación. f) Los niveles de calificación de la fuerza de trabajo están relacionados directamente con los niveles de instrucción, capacidad y modalidade~ del sistema educativo. g) El crecimiento demográfico está determinado por las características del proceso de desarrollo econtínico y la heterogeneidad productiva de la entidad. h) La estructura de población producto del crecimiento demográfico condiciona la magni t ud de los recursos humanos disponibles y la eficienci a del sistema educativo, la calidad. i) El crecimiento de la fuerza de tr abajo está determinado· a corto pl azo por la dinámica del sistema productivo y a largo plazo por la evolución poblacional. A partir de estas consideraciones se ha establecido el esquema de análisis para la determinación de los requerimientos de fonnación: por una parte, un enfoque sectorial que pennite di stinguir los diferencial es productivos y su relación con la estructura ocupacional; por otra, la dinámica poblacional Y educa ti va como condicionantes de las características cualitativas �~ 11) 11) c. e: M' ..... o "'-, :::, "'e: ó' "O ..... e: ;;} ó' "' c. M' n ..... "'c. r+ "' "' j ..... o , o:::, < o :::, o .... '< l'T1 "' cr c. :::, 11) ª'..... "'"'_, "' "O-, "O-,"' "'"' c. o "'r+ :::, <O..... e: o "O :::, c. o n "' c. e: :::, ..... n e, "' ..... n ..... "' c. o, e: c. e, "' a. :' r+ "' r+ "' r+ -, c. e, c. "' -, 3 c. n 11) ('") 11) 11) 11) 11) 11) 11) 11) 11) w 11) 11) n e, "O e, ..... r+ n e, !3. o, :::, .c e: 11) c. 11) cr 11) -, V, 11) :::, 11) 11) CX) CX) 11) 11) n e: -, o"' "' :,- e: 3 "' :::, oV, 11) ..... < r+ "'c. -,e: e, -, e: cr _, ..... n 11) n 11) :::, o _, 11) 11) e, "' c. "' ..... ..... e, 11) o n e: "O :::, n..... o, :::, c. 11) n "' ..... Eir ..... "O-, o..... o o r+ e, "O ..... n ..... o o :::, e, 11) :::, e, 11) e, :::, "' _, -, c. .e e: f'I) -, "' ..... o. ..... ne: ..... 3 ..... e, ..... ..... "' c. r+ e, :::, :::, ..... r+ "' c. o o. r+ cr "' -, "' e, ..... c.... c. e, "' m o "' e,, e,, 11) :::, 11) V, 11) V, 11) 11) 11) 11) 11) ESQUEMA DE ANALISIS DE LDS RECURSOS HUMANOS SISTEMA ECONOMICO PRODUCTIVO SISTEMA SOCIAL- EDUCATIVO ~ lítica Económica. Invers ión Empleo Produc tividad Capaci tación Produc . Sector i al Agropecuario Industria Servicios Transporte Energéticos Construcción Polí tica Social Educati va Población Sist. Educativo Demograf í a Educat i va Natalidad Mortalidad Mi gración Cobertura Modalidades Presupuesto Heterogene idad Económica Productividad Tecnología Absorción Estructura Ocupacional Cali f icación de la F. de T. REQUERIMIENTO DE RECURSOS HUMANOS Fuerza de Tra bajo : C::ovn Sexo y" Edad ~ ,da f echa Ingresos al Sistema Educati vo ria Superior Demanda Insatisfecha y Deserción Ingresos a l a fuerza ,de trabajo - 1 Egresos : Primari3 Medio Superior DISPONIBIL IDADES DE RECURSOS HUMANOS I PLAN DE FORMAC !Otl DE LOS RECURSOS HUMANOS ~ �Se terminó de imprimir en Enero de 1982, en el Departamento de Impresos de la Facultad de Economía, de la Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Lomd Redonda 1515 Pte., Colonia Loma Larga, Monterrey, N.L., Mexico, bajo la supervisión del Sr. Homero Cantú Salinas. Se tiraron 500 ejemplares más sobrantes para reposición. ���� Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Ensayos Description An account of the resource La revista ENSAYOS publica manuscritos de todos los campos de la economía, la estadística, las ciencias sociales y la educación. Se editó tres veces al año en los meses de 01, 05 y 09; salvo cambios de última hora que determinen lo contrario. A partir del año 1990 cambia su periodicidad a dos ves al año (Mayo y Noviembre). En el 2001 cambia su nombre a Ensayos Revista de Economía y para el año 2012 ya es una revista arbitrada que aparece indexada a EconLit. Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Título Uniforme Ensayos Año de publicación El año cuando se publico 1982 Época Época del la revista Segunda Época Volumen Volumen de la revista 4 Número Número de la revista 1 Mes de publicación Mes cuando se publicó Enero Día Día del mes de la publicación 1 Periodicidad La periodicidad de la publicación (diaria, semanal, mensual, anual) Tetramestral Relación OPAC https://www.codice.uanl.mx/RegistroBibliografico/InformacionBibliografica?from=BusquedaAvanzada&bibId=1753075&biblioteca=0&fb=20000&fm=6&isbn= Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Ensayos 1982, Segunda Época, Vol 4, No 1, Enero 1 Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Facultad de Economía, UANL Subject The topic of the resource Ciencias Sociales Economía Publicaciones periódicas Estadística Educación Description An account of the resource La revista ENSAYOS publica manuscritos de todos los campos de la economía, la estadística, las ciencias sociales y la educación. Se editó tres veces al año en los meses de 01, 05 y 09; salvo cambios de última hora que determinen lo contrario. A partir del año 1990 cambia su periodicidad a dos ves al año (Mayo y Noviembre). En el 2001 cambia su nombre a Ensayos Revista de Economía y para el año 2012 ya es una revista arbitrada que aparece indexada a EconLit. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Facultad de Economía Contributor An entity responsible for making contributions to the resource Garcia Espinosa, Arturo, Director Garza García, Andrés, Editor Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 01/01/1982 Type The nature or genre of the resource Revista Format The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource tex/pdf Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 2015730 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Fondo Universitario Language A language of the resource spa Spatial Coverage Spatial characteristics of the resource. Monterrey, N.L., (México) Access Rights Information about who can access the resource or an indication of its security status. Access Rights may include information regarding access or restrictions based on privacy, security, or other policies. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Rights Holder A person or organization owning or managing rights over the resource. El diseño y los contenidos de La hemeroteca Digital UANL están protegidos por la Ley de derechos de autor, Cap. III. De dominio público. Art. 152. Las obras del dominio público pueden ser libremente utilizadas por cualquier persona, con la sola restricción de respetar los derechos morales de los respectivos autores Demanda social Economía Educación Mano de obra Planificación de recursos humanos Teoría del capital humano